Horse contest multiple entries smells like Wall St.

There's a good reason I don't play in no-limit poker tournaments. In most Texas Hold'em games, there's comes a point where whoever has the most chips is able to bully the other players into submission by making huge bets or going all-in. And if you aren't that guy, you're screwed.

In horse contests and tournaments, we have a similar phenomenon - multiple entries. Contests that allow players to buy two and sometimes three entries per game give those players a big advantage by letting them pay extra to reduce their odds. Effectively, these rules are favoring people with more money who can afford to buy the extra entries. As evidence, the National Handicapping Championship recently changed its rules to allow two entries per player in the main tournament.

As well-known "Horseplayers" personality Kevin Cox pointed out in Peter Thomas Fornatale's book 'The Winning Contest Player', taking a second entry reduces your odds of winning the NHC crown from 460-1 to 230-1.

No serious horseplayer with the resources to back him/her up would not do this. But why do contest organizers play along? Presumably, they want the big bucks these people bring to the table. Folks who buy two or three entries per tournament are obviously a more reliable source of revenue than the little guy trying to parlay a single qualifying entry, the thinking likely runs. And they also have a greater chance of winning. Wall Street and Washington, D.C. function on similar mentalities.

I recently played a single entry in an 8-bullet, $2 win/place qualifying tournament and made just over $101 - my second-best ROI result ever. I got beat out by a guy playing for a second seat in the tournament who made $110. Neither of his tickets in the big tournament wound up hitting the money. Not saying one of mine would have, but it would have been nice to go up against the guy in the main tournament just to see.

The fact is, allowing players to purchase multiple entries or occupy multiple seats at tournaments is seriously unfair to the thousands of horseplayers who have flocked to contests over the past few years looking for a better return than the pari-mutuel tote. Getting knocked out of a qualifier by a player who has already booked a seat in the tournament is counter-productive - demand is so high for big-money games on contest sites like Derby Wars that there's actually plenty of players ready to snatch up somebody else's vacated second seat. Derby Wars' big-money tournament qualifiers, for example, are routinely over-booked week after week.

Making a blanket single-entry rule across all platforms for all tournaments would truly level the playing field. It would force all players in the contest to make the same tough decisions without the option of "laying off" on a second choice. And it would give every player and equal chance going into the tournament no matter the size of their bankroll. Wealthier players still have the option of entering numerically more contests than those of more modest means. Plus it would add a greater diversity and number of players to the tournament pools - always a positive development in an expanding sector.

Looks like the ship has already sailed at the NHC. So let's make the call to Derby Wars and other contest sites like HorseTourneys and HorsePlayersQualify. Make your contests truly egalitarian and meritocratic by restricting contest entries to one per tournament and give everybody, wealthy or not, an equal chance of hitting the money. Surely that's the American way.

First rule of handicapping: believe in yourself

The easiest trap to fall into as a blogger is to fail to heed your own advice. Mea culpa on that one today.

In a post here a couple of days ago I warned handicappers to trust their own judgment and not be swayed by so-called experts. Yet in the opening race at Aqueduct Friday I did exactly that and it cost me big-time - almost certainly a spot in a big Derby Wars tournament I was aiming at for Saturday. In a field of just seven horses in a 2-year-old fillies Maiden I landed on what I thought would be the longest-shot of two roughies, Golden Luck at about 15/1.

But at opening price of 10/1 he looked bad value against the other long-shot, Naturally Won, at 14/1. The Aqueduct between-race announcers agreed, pointing out that Golden Luck should have been a much longer price than Naturally Won. I panicked and, with five minutes to go and the odds still heavily in Naturally Won's favor, switched to it. Bad decision. Golden Luck blew out late in the market to 27/1 while naturally Won stuck at 14/1. Golden Luck duly won and put one smart tournament player (not me) into tomorrow's $20,000 tournament.

Note to self: lots of other people hear that between-race analysis, too, and the money tends to follow what they say. You've already handicapped the race and made your pick. Remember Norman Vincent Peale: Believe in Yourself.

Top 5 reasons people quit on (clean) horse racing

1. They over-estimate the meaning of losing
When life is seen as a football game, then losing appears unacceptable. But horse racing isn't like that. In wagering, good decisions are more important than good outcomes, winning happens over the long haul, and hitting winners that pay well is more important than just hitting winners. As Peter Fornatale, in his excellent book 'The Winning Contest Player', points out (p. 199): "In gambling, you can still hate losing, but you also must learn to live with it." Losing happens more often than winning in horse racing and successful wagerers adjust to its relative frequency.

2. They over-estimate the thrill of winning
Winning on the horses is as easily misconstrued as losing on them. You're not a handicapping genius because you hit a 150-1 daily double - maybe your system's just working. Winners at the track can get lost in the exhiliration of the moment and mistakenly believe they can back winners all day. Fornatale's book (p. 201) quotes well-known tournament player Brian Troop in warning bettors against this: "If you win a race and you get a good price, you should forget about it because there are more races to come." In other words, learn to hit the re-set button.

3. They under-estimate horses 
Research indicates that horses are not the simple-minded oat-bags we used to think. For example, we now know that they have powerful memories of significant events in their lives - often dating back years. Positive recollections no doubt have as great an impact on horses as on humans and with similar results: if a horse has done well somewhere and been rewarded, it remembers that event vividly and will try to repeat it. Horse-players often mistakenly think horses are only as good as their last few races, whereas value often lies eight races down or more. Form guides that go back that far cost extra but are worth it.

4. They over-estimate others' opinions
Most racing programs have a morning line - the odds of the horse - printed under the horse's number. Many race-goers think that this figure represents the actual odds (or chance) of the horse winning that race. Not so. The morning line represents what somebody thinks the final odds of the horse will be at post time. In other words, it's one person's prediction of what the combined total of a whole lot of other people's predictions will finish up at. Confused? They might be, too. Same goes for all those other "handicapping experts" on TV and in print - it's all just individual opinions. Like yours.

5. They under-estimate their own abilities
Following on from that, there's a reason Norman Vincent Peale's book 'The Power of Positive Thinking', first published in 1952, is still being reviewed on Amazon to this day. Distilled to its essence, Peale's message in the book is for horse-players (and everybody else, of course) to "believe in yourself." Remember the old horse-track saying: "If you want to know who the competition is, look around". As tough as it sounds, you have to ask yourself, in times of self doubt, whether you're really as incompetent at this as that knucklehead over there. Peale was right - believe.

Vic. Derby Day could fatten Breeders Cup Bankrolls

We realize that U.S. racing fans' attention may be a little diverted from the Australian racing scene right now. But Derby Day in Melbourne is huge, the timing is perfect (Friday night) and RePete has found lots of great value plays to help fatten those Breeders' Cup betting bankrolls. So here we go.



The track: Flemington racecourse is so big it runs no-turn six-furlong (1200 meter) races (the Straight Six) and the home stretch is almost three furlongs long, so closers are probably more strongly favored there than at any track in Australia. And with track conditions expected to be no worse than dead, track bias should be minimal, allowing form to play out.

Race 1: The track should suit lightly-raced Sydney shipper No. 7 Kermadec (7/1 ML), who finished fast for 2nd at Randwick (Sydney's largest track) last start over this distance two weeks ago and has a first-start maiden victory over Careless (No. 4) to her credit. Stratum Star (No. 2) is another big finisher making her mile debut - she's a last-start winner at this level. Wandjina (No. 3) is taking a big class drop here. Pick: 7-2x4x3.

 
Race 2: Fontein Ruby (No. 1) just keeps getting better and she looks too good for these despite her short even-money ML. At that price, try standing her out over 15/1 ML shot Yesterjoy (No. 10), which didn't appear suited by the tight Geelong circuit last start; add Sydney shipper No. 5 Muscovado (7/1) - a last-start Randwick winner - and No. 7 Lady Macan (10/1) to the exotics boxes. Pick: 1-10x5x7.


 
Race 3: At 20/1 overnight, No. 12 Spy Decoder from the powerful Cummings stable is one of the value plays of the day. He atoned for his poor effort at Grade One level two runs ago with a good win in Sydney last start and today's seven furlongs (1400 meters) favors him. Expect No. 1 Smokin' Joey (12/1) to be finishing hard and add No. 3 Generalife (5/1), No. 2 Alma's Fury (15/1) and No. 5 Limes (15/1) to what could be a big exotics play. Pick: 12-1x3x2x5.

Race 4: Very tough to call this one so we'll lean towards on-the-pace runners. Scissor Kick (No. 3) at 10/1 ML is in very good Sydney form with a recent 2nd-placing at Group One level and should appreciate the cutback from 7 furlongs to six here. But include No. 1 Rich Enuff (9/2), which is ultra-consistent at this level, has a 2-for-2 strike rate at the distance and is the likely pace-setter. Play the best price but box the exacta. Pick: 1x3


 
Race 5: Back to the closers here with No. 13 More Than Sacred, a price shot at 12/1 which came from well back on the turn in the Grade 3 Geelong Cup last start and before that was a fast-finishing 2nd at Cranbourne. Flemington's long stretch should suit her. For exotics add No. 1 Big Memory (9/2) taking a big class drop and No. 5 Let's Make Adeal (7/1) off a strong finish last start. We'll add No. 9 Signoff (9/2) No. 10 Marksmanship to juice the exotics. Pick: 13-1x5x9x10

Race 6: This year Australia's second-biggest weight-for-age race is a wagerer's dream at 5/1 the field. Lets take advantage by playing two on top at around 7/1 ML: No. 2 Happy Trails and No. 15 Rising Romance. The former was a fast-finishing sixth over the unsuitable Moonee Valley circuit last start and has been primed for this race. The latter ran a game second last start in the Caulfield Cup and looks to be still improving, though she's not well in at the weights. Play them over ML favorite No. 13 Criterion (5/1) and the 15/1 shot Spillway (No. 11), both of which will be suited by the track. Pick: 2x15-13x11.


Race 7: Today's best best is in the feature race - the Victoria Derby - but isn't much value at 9/5. Nonetheless No. 1 Hampton Court, from the powerful Gai Waterhouse stable, is in outstanding form in Sydney and strongly impressed with a very easy last-start win at Grade 1 level. He looks to be getting better with each start. Let's stand him out over a couple of price shots in No. 7 Nozomi, from the strong Freedman stable, and Sydney shipper no. 12 Gouldian, both at 20/1 ML. Add ML favorite (3/1) No. 13 Preferment and No. 11 Atmosphere at about 7/1 to the exotic plays. Pick: 1*-7x11x12x13.

 
Race 8: Perhaps the value play of the day lands in this race in No. 3 Diamond Drille at 20/1 ML. This classy mare was blocked for a run last start when 7th to today's ML favorite and Waterhouse stablemate No. 1 Sweet Idea (9/2), who is the second choice. Diamond Drille has a great mile record (2-for-2) and the stable is known for fielding strong second-stringers in big races. Add No. 2 Catkins (7/1), No. 4 May's Dream (5/1) and No. 14 Politeness (12/1) for the minor placings. Pick: 3-1x2x4x14.


Race 9: Legendary NSW bush jockey Robert Thompson makes a rare Melbourne appearance today to ride No. 5 Big Money (6/1) and we'll take that cue. This horse was a strong-finishing fourth two weeks ago at Caulfield, his first time out of the money, and he has a 3:2-1 record at the today's 6 furlongs. Box him in your exacta with the unbeaten 6/5 ML favorite Deep Field (No. 6), who has looked impressive but faces his toughest test to date. Take both in the trifecta over 30/1 shot No. 9 That's A Good Idea and No. 1 Bel Sprinter (5/1). Pick: 5x6-1x9

St Louis track looks doomed by economics, politics

Is St. Louis about to become the third major U.S. metropolitan area to lose its only live horse-racing venue?

Fairmount Park, one of the country's smallest pari-mutuel wagering tracks, might not re-open for the spring meet in 2015. Declining handle, competition from nearby casinos and the tangled undergrowth of Illinois politics may have doomed the little track that barely could. Not to mention the track ownership's apparent inability to market Fairmount Park as a viable racing venue.

The track has struggled for years to stay alive as new gambling venues like the Casino Queen, about five miles away in East St. Louis, have sucked away local gambling dollars. The track has fought back by applying for a casino license, but Illinois politics and poor marketing have combined to so far thwart the track's attempts to compete.

Boston-area's Suffolk Downs recently closed because it lost a battle with the Wynn casino group for a lucrative gaming license. Colonial Downs, in Richmond, VA, lost out to competition from the five major casinos of nearby Maryland according to a local report. Fairmount Park's nearest gambling competition is the Casino Queen in East St. Louis, where revenue has fallen by 13% over the past year. Fairmount's application for a slot-machine licence would no doubt do further harm to the impoverished community, which draws 40% of its tax revenue from the casino.

Apparently in reaction to the Casino Queen's woes, a Chicago politician recently removed the Fairmount Park racetrack from a list of venues recommended to receive slot-machine licenses from the State of Illinois next year. One local report implied that the motivation for this was a combination of racial politics (East St. Louis is 95% African-American, as is the politician, Robert Rita) and a desire by Rita to win a casino license for his own constituency.

But if Fairmount Park closes it will surely be a matter of economics. The track is ranked number 53 out of the country's 69 pari-mutuels wagering tracks for horse-player value, according to  a recent report by the Horseplayers Association of North America. The track also has a well-deserved reputation for dodgy riding tactics. 

There are quite simply too many small, substandard racetracks in the U.S. like Fairmount Park chasing too few gambling dollars in mid-western cities like St. Louis. More of them will need to close in future if the sport is to recover. Let's get it over with.

Value plays abound on tough Cox plate undercard

Race 2: Miss Steele (No. 10) was unlucky in the stretch last week in listed company at Caulfield and faces weaker today at a healthy 8/1 morning line. Rocky King (No. 1) has won two in a row at 6/1 while Straight Gold (No. 5) or Let"s Rock'n'roll (No. 7) should take the minor placing.
Suggested play: Win: 10; Stand-out exacta and trifecta: 10 over 1x5x7 boxed

Race 3: There's an over-played odds-on favorite here in No. 1 Lumosty, who drops in class but was still disappointing at Grade 1 level last start. Instead take no. 4 Tender off a 10/1 morning line - she closed well last start and the extra furlong should suit. Add No. 8 Kansas Sunflower at 20/1, who ran a good fourth last week, and put the favorite into boxed exotics.
Suggested play: Win: 4, 8. Boxed exacta: 4x8x1, Boxed trifecta 4x8x1


Race 5: Bomb-dropper alert here with Anudjawan (No. 8) at about 30/1 overnight. This horse ran third to the outstanding Who Shot Thebarman over this distance last start and looks ready here at a big price. The exacta play looks like 3/1 overnight favorite Opinion (No. 7) off an excellent Grade One effort last start.
Suggested play: Win, place and show: 8; Box exacta: 8x7; Box trifecta: 8x7 boxed over 4x5x9 boxed

Race 9: Another price shot in Precious Gem (No. 10) looks strong at a 10/1 morning line coming off a fast-finishing 6th at Grade 3 level last start at Caulfield, its first from a let-up. For the exotics, let's add long-shot Refer (No. 12) at 15/1 and Tango's Daughter (No. 2) at 7/2 with favorite Suavito (No. 4) at 2/1.
Suggested play: 10 win, place and show. Stand-out exacta and trifecta: 10 over 12x2x4 boxed.

Remember: Our handicapper RePete suggests that if you have the bankroll for it, box all of his picks in the exotics in each race tonight. At these prices, he notes, it could well be worth the extra outlay

Trust in a Gust a lock to key 5-for-5 show plays

We've already discussed the need for a little help in the Twinspires Australian 5-for-5 contests on Friday nights. Look to oustanding Melbourne prospect Trust in a Gust (No. 5) in Race 6, the Group 2 Schweppes Crystal Mile, to lock the play.

There's no value in 6-5 morning line about this horse but he is almost certain to hit the board after convincing wins at higher Grade in his last two starts. Plus he loves this track (3:2-1) and has an oustanding strike rate (17:10-4-1) so forget the tiny show payout and make him your lock 5-for-5 lock.

As well as Fawkner (No. 2) in the Cox Plate (R8), and Go Indy Go (no. 13) in the Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase (R7) to make it three, let's try to separate from the pack with a few price shots to make the five early on. In Race 2, No. 10 Miss Steele (8/1) should at least hit the board off an unlucky 8th place at Caulfield last week. Follow with another 8/1 pop in race 4, Greco (no. 6), who broke his maiden in Sydney stylishly and hails from an astute shipping stable. If you still need a fifth to wrap things up, try 10/1 shot No. 10 Precious Gem in race 9 off a fast-finishing fourth at Caulfield last week. Your 5-for-5 is set - good luck winning the $1,000.

Suggested 5-for-5 show play: R2 No.10 - R4 No.6 - R6 No.5 - R8 No.2 - R9 No.10

Go Indy Go is the best value bet on Cox Plate day

Adelaide filly Go Indy Go (No. 13) is the day's standout bet on the Cox Plate undercard race 7, the Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase, over 1.25 miles at Moonee Valley tonight (1:50 a.m. U.S. EDT).

Go Indy Go was very unlucky last start at Grade One level at Caulfield when cut off several times in the home stretch and finishing only 3 lengths from the winner. She drops to Grade Two tonight and is well over the odds at the morning line quote of 5/1: she's a win play at anything near that price.

She will also be our stand-out exacta and trifecta play and our key to the Twinspires Australian 5-for-5 show contest picks. For the minor money, let's try to add a little value with two lightly-raced improvers: Sydney invader Gouldian (No. 8) at 15/1 overnight and 
Moonovermanhattan (No. 4) at 5/1. Toss in overnight favorite Chivalry (No. 2) at 5/2 to your trifectas.

Suggested play: Win: 13; Stand-out exacta: 13 over 8x4 boxed; Stand-out trifecta: 13 over 8x4x2 boxed.

Fawkner the key play for Cox Plate exotics value

Last year, classy galloper Fawkner was set for the Caulfield Cup by owner Lloyd Williams and Trainer Robert Hickmott. He duly won it. This year he looks to have been set for the Cox Plate, Australia's premier weight-for-age Grade 1 stakes race at Moonee Valley tonight (2:40 a.m. EDT Sat.). And we expect him to follow last year's pattern and take the prize.

This versatile galloper is more of a sprinter-miler than a true stayer but that's actually an advantage over the tight Moonee Valley mile-and-a-quarter circuit, where mid-race speed is the key to getting position before the short home stretch. The stable has never won this race and wants the monkey off its back. Fawkner (No. 2) is currently your race 8 favorite at 5/2 and that price should hold up.

But at that quote we suggest looking to juice the return a little, so let's stand Fawkner out in the exactas and trifectas with a few value plays. First on that list should be Sweynesse (No. 13) at a 20/1 morning line that could get better. He's the best of the three-year-olds, an age group that has a great record in this race. Add in Arlington Million minor placegetter Side Glance (No. 3) at 30-1 and Happy Trails (No. 4) at 7-1 for extra value.

Suggested play: Stand-out exacta and trifecta: 2 over 13x3x4 (boxed).

Picking showdown contests: Can you spank the monkey?

Here's a little test to separate the real horse-players from those who are just pretending. Ask them to place a degree of difficulty on doing the following: place five show bets on five horses that land on the board in five consecutive races.

I've done this several times with unwavering results. Gamblers who don't bet much on the horses but instead play football, cards, dice or whatever will come out with non-committal responses like: "not too bad", "sounds OK" and "reasonable". Horse-players are uniform in their response: "Tough one."

Indeed. Winning showdown contests, as they are often called, sounds easy but is hard to pull off. In the best-known format, "survivor showdown", each player in the tournament places a show bet on a horse. Those who collect continue to place show bets in consecutive races while the losers drop out until eventually only one player remains and collects the pool. In a variation on this, each player is simply awarded a point for every show bet cash and the player with the most points at the end of the contest wins. This way you can lose one or two and still be in the hunt.

So how hard is it to pick consecutive show payers? Let's do the math on the TwinSpires Australian 5-for-5 on Friday nights, one of my favorite betting contests. Here you've got to do what's described in the first paragraph: pick five horses in a row to show without a loss. If you hit it, you - or anyone else who also hits it - wins all or a share of $1,000. That bet sounds attractive to gamblers who think they can "beat the races" as opposed to "beat a race". Is it?

Let's do the simple math. The chances of picking a horse at random to show in the average 12-horse race is 1 in 4 (3 placings out of 12). Multiply that by a factor of five (the number of races) and you get 1,024-1. Those are the odds of the proverbial monkey throwing five darts at five 12-horse (about) race-cards at Moonee Valley on Friday night and landing on a horse that hits the board each time without missing. The chance plays, if you will.

We would of course like to think that if we handicap show horses against the dart-tossing chimp, we would whip his butt. But how likely is that really?

Remember that the monkey throwing darts at the race card is hitting the 5-for-5 at 1,024-1 odds. So what are the odds on offer in the TwinSpires 5-for-5, assuming you are the only person competing who manages to go five for five (and the past two weeks the $1,000 has been shared)? The jackpot is paying you $1,000 plus the show dividends for the five horses (let's say another $100) to a $25 outlay to pull it off. So the odds are 44-1.

By those odds, you - the smart punter - are 23 times more likely to handicap your way past the monkey. Put another way, if you and the monkey handicapped 23 consecutive cards over 23 Friday nights, your way and his, the monkey would win just one. Is your judgement really that much better than the monkey's dumb luck? You'd like to think so, but I've got a sneaking suspicion that the primates may have the hominids slightly over-matched on this one.

That said, you'll want to play in this contest if you can stay up that late on a Friday and still be able to work a computer mouse. All showdown tournaments are a blast but the Australian 5-for-5 has the added advantage of showcasing some of the best and most competitive turf racing in the world at this time of the year. And if you miss the main prize you can still win your way into the $1,000 consolation-prize pool just for cashing five $5 show tickets. That will often add an extra $30-40 to the bankroll.

So let's get a bit more distance between us and those fortunate apes. Try these tips to pull the show odds in your favor:

1) Consistency is everything. Horses are creatures of habit - they run with the pack and follow the leader. A horse that learns early on that it is a front-finisher (and yes, horses do have a mind for these things) will tend to keep on doing that, while the horses around him/her can pick it up and adjust accordingly. Horses that have consistently hit the board over 10 or 15 starts are more likely to do it again simply because they have developed the habit of doing so. Watch them.

2) Drop a bomb. Many players mistakenly think that showdowns are all about chalk play. Not so. Anything that hits the board at more than 5-1 is likely knocking at least one that's shorter (even a lot shorter) off the board, and all its players along with it. And the longer the prices of the other two horses that hit the board, the more likely you are to separate yourself from the field with such a pick. So if you don't want to share the prize with ten other people (as happened in the Caulfield Cup Day 5-for-5), throw in at least one strong horse at a value price. Even two.

3) Handicap the bias. If possible, sit out the first couple of races to check for any noticeable daily track bias towards speed horses or closers. Daily track bias will kill the best-handicapped contest card very early on if not accounted for, especially on the American dirt - less so on the Australian turf, where tracks are regularly watered and rails shifted. But speed horses on a day of speed bias, for example, are a showdown-player's dream because they hit the board so predictably - even on the Aussie turf.

4) Listen to the locals. Australian tracks are more of a challenge to handicap because the grass surfaces, larger fields and the tighter Australian style of racing combine to make results more unpredictable. Shippers are almost always under-bet and the greater the distance between one track and another (and that can be a long way in Australia) the better the value, for the most part. A local horse-player who handicaps all the city tracks every weekend of the year (like RePete) gets an edge when all the good horses end up at the same tracks at the same time, like the Melbourne Spring Carnival.

5) Play along. The rule in the TwinSpires Australian 5-for-5 is that only your first $5 show wager in a race counts as your contest wager. So the contest becomes more fun if you then start using your show bets to key around boxed exactas and trifectas - and TwinSpires naturally supplies all the standard and exotic bets on the showdown races on their platform as you go. The Australian attitude here is: if you've handicapped the races anyway, you might as well have a punt on the side. Go with that.

Seek bleeders and ye shall cure them with Lasix

Australians racing fans moving stateside usually adapt to American tracks and horses pretty well. But one thing just completely throws us.

Where do all these bleeders come from?

For the non-veterinarians (myself included), I'm referring to a disorder known in American racehorses as Exercise-Induced Pulmonary Hemorrage (EIPH) that causes them to bleed from the lungs after hard exercise. It is usually called simply bleeding and is treated legally in American barns with the medication furosemide, generally known by the brand name Lasix.

Lasix is also a race-day performance-enhancer. And therein lies the issue. In Australia, all race-day medication medication is banned. Horses can't have so much as a chai latte within 24 hours of the race. So forget shooting horses up with Lasix (and other PEs) on race day, as is common practice around American tracks.

In fact, Australians actually consider EIPH to be a problem only if the horse actually bleeds from the nostrils (see pic. above right). And Australians don't medicate bleeders anyway. If a horse bleeds at a track in Australia, he must be spelled from racing for at least three months. If he bleeds again, he must be retired from racing. Doesn't happen often - the rate of such epistaxis in Australian racehorses is about 0.2%.

And yet we have more questions: how do you know if a horse has EIPH if you don't see blood in the nostrils? Well, not long after Lasix was approved for use in bleeders in the early 1970s, along came  a very useful tool that made it much easier to find bleeders before they actually bled - the flexible endoscope (left). This allowed veterinarians to stick a tube down the horses throat to look for blood much closer to the source (in the upper pulmonary system - the top of the lungs). And sure enough, they found it.

Problem is, recent research has in fact pointed out that EIPH is common in most horses after strenuous exercise like hard running. Consequently, estimates of the rate of EIPH diagnosis in American racehorses vary from 50% up to 100% by some researchers. No big deal, says the research. Not so, say American racehorse veterinarians. So American racehorses are almost universally treated with Lasix to reduce the incidence of EIPH, which is of debatable danger in the first place. It also helps them run faster and is a major reason why American horses don't enter the Australia's most prestigious horse race, the Melbourne Cup.

The simple fact is that the widespread use of lasix is a scam, pushed by greedy parmaceutical companes and veterinarians and eagerly embraced by owners and trainers looking for that extra edge at the track at the risk of possibly endangering the horse's health. This leads to breakdowns, fewer starts per horse and a general decline in the quality of American horse racing.

American racing should take a leaf out of Australia's book and ban all performance-enhancimg drugs between 24 hours of race-day. On second thought, better write some national rules of U.S. racing first.

Geelong Cup day a disappointment but Cox Plate looms large

RePete is nothing if not fearless. Refusing to be discouraged by bookmaker scepticism, he went after some big prices for the exotics bets and gave backers a big sight in a couple of races.

25-1 shot top play Bel Rhythm in particular outran her odds in race 4 and looked the winner rounding the home turn before running out of Wheaties. Jacinta, a minor-money selection in Race 8, gave exotics players a great sight by outrunning her 15-1 with a close-up 4th.

Overall, though not one of his better outings in terms of results. However, for a value player like RePete, days like that come with the bright-green Australian turf. Here are his consolidated results for the races 3 through 10 at Geelong last night:

Winning picks made: 7; finished first: 0; ratio: 30%; average SP: N/A
Non-winning picks made: 14; finished first: 2; ratio: 14.3%; average SP: 2-1
Total picks made: 21; finished on board: 5; ratio: 21%; average SP: 4.3-1

Below is the table of results for his individual picks followed by their number, official starting price and finishing position.

3  Southern Meteor  3   6-1  6th
   Glitzabeel   11  40-1 11th
  
4  Bel Rhythm   4  25-1  5th
   Gold Bar    12   5-1  4th

5  Aggregator   2   7-2  5th
   Mister Impatience   1  40-1  8th
   Beauty Perception   3  13-2  3rd
   Martinvast   5  16-1  6th
   Don Doremo   9  11-8  1st
    
6  Yesterjoy    15  15-2 11th
   Miracle the Second   2   4-1  3rd

7  Zanbagh    4   6-1 11th
   Sertorius     1   4-1  8th
   Moe than Sacred    5   5-1  4th

8  Griante   2  11-4  8th
   River Delta   8   5-2  1st
   Jacinta  15  15-1  4th

9  Cadillac Mountain   3   5-2  4th
   Sadaqa   4   7-1  3rd
   Realist    12   9-1  8th
   Phantom Brew        1 100-1 11th

Up next Friday night (U.S. time) is the Cox Plate - the world's richest weight-for-age race. We're at Moonee Valley for that one - probably the most challenging track in Australia for picking winners. All the best!

Bankroll booster alert - Geelong Cup day

As the clock winds down to Australian horse-racing's biggest day - Melbourne Cup day, the first Tuesday in November -  in a couple of weeks, some of Australia's better form-horses have shifted camp to the state of Victoria. Tonight's Geelong Cup is a traditional lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup and the undercard is typically competitive and value-laden.

Our Sydney-based Australian racing form analyst RePete has scanned races 3 through 9 at Geelong and will try to hit some value-play exotics to get us set for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley (Melbourne) on Friday night. Post time for the first of our races - Race 3 - is at 10:35 Eastern Time.

Race 3
SOUTHERN METEOR (No. 7) at around 6-1 looks the play here. He was a good winner at Sale (Vic.) over this distance last start and before that got too far out of his ground to Maastricht, who ran a good second at Caulfield last Saturday at Grade 2. Drop a bomb for second with GLITZABEEL (No. 10), whose recent New Zealand form isn't great but she's well-bred and has ability at about 20-1. Pick: 7-10-ANY

Race 4
Let's try BEL RHYTHM (No. 4) here at a very nice 20-1 quote. She's coming off poor form prior to a six-month layoff but her first up record is 6:1-2-1 and the drop-back to 6 furlongs here also helps her.  The unbeaten GOLD BAR (No. 14) at around 5-1 will be hard to beat coming off a win at this distance at Ballarat last start. She's an on-the speed runner who won here over 5 furlongs at her debut. Pick: 4-14-1x5x9

Race 5
Big-race form suggests that AGGREGATOR (No. 2) is ready for this and should win, but he's not much value at around 3-1. However, he did run a good second to Big Memory - who has since won the Herbert Power Handicap - during the autumn over 1.6 miles and last start finished well for third at Caulfield over today's distance. So let's stand him out in exactas and trifectas with MISTER IMPATIENCE (No. 1) at a juicy 20-1, who has poor recent form but ran well on slow tracks in the U.K. in 2013. For third, box BEAUTY PERCEPTION (No. 3) and MARTINVAST (No. 5) both at around 12-1 and DON DOREMO (No. 9) at about 9-2. Pick: 2-1-3x5x9

Race 6
The lightly-raced Sydney invader YESTERJOY (No. 15) looks rock solid off a last-start win over 10 furlongs at Hawkesbury (Provincial NSW) at around the 8-1 quote. She's from the strong Strawberry Hill Stud-Clarry Connors barn and looks primed for a run at the VRC (Melbourne) Oaks so expect her to show up well today. Don't leave out MIRACLE THE SECOND (No. 2) at around a fat 20/1 quote, coming off some excellent form in Adelaide including a last-start 3rd in a listed stakes event. Pick: 15-2-1x4x6x9

Race 7
The feature race is the Geelong Cup and it's a very open betting affair with around 6-1 the field overnight. We'll take a line through last Friday night's Caulfield Cup form to pick ZANBAGH (No. 4) at around 6-1. This 4-year-old mare finished second in the AJC (Sydney) Oaks over 1.5 miles last autumn to Rising Romance, who finished a game second to Admire Rakti in last week's race. She also beat home Caulfield Cup third placegetter Lucia Valentina in the Oaks and today's distance will suit her better than last week's third in the Benalla (Vic.) Cup. over 10 furlongs. Topweight SERTORIUS (No. 1) will probably start favorite at around 7-2 as he takes a significant drop in grade here from his recent weight-for-age Grade One outings. Add MORE THAN SACRED (NO. 5) to exotics off a solid second in the Cranbourne Cup ten days ago and currently 6-1. She has 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Pick: 4-1x5

Race 8
Top pick GRIANTE (No. 2) is drawn wide in barrier 16 of 18 and the run to the home turn is short at Geelong, which is shaped like the harness track that runs inside it. But that should add to her value, coming off an excellent last-start win over this distance at Caulfield and expect her to be finishing over the top of them at around 6-1. The lightly-raced RIVER DELTA (No. 8) comes in with excellent city form and looks the danger at about 5-1 Keep an eye on longshot JACINTA (No. 15) at 15-1 - she has a great record at this distance and is coming off a good third last start at Canberra over a furlong further than today's race. Pick: 2-8-15

Race 9
Might need to focus on the exotic plays here as CADILLAC MOUNTAIN (No. 3) is the class of the field and should win but will be too short to back outright at around 3-1. Instead let's drop in SADAQA (No. 4 ) to place - he's taking a four-kilo off an ordinary effort at Wangaratta (Vic.) but that was first-up off a 4-month lay-off and his previous form was excellent. The step up to 7.5 furlongs will suit him at a nice 14-1 quote. For the third money, try adding lightweight hope REALIST (No. 12) at around 8-1. He lugged four kilos more than today's impost to win at Pakenham (Vic.) two starts ago and is one-for-one at the distance. Add big bomb PHANTOM BREW (No. 1) at about 30-1 for the superfecta. Pick: 3-4-12-1

Any bankroll should be saved for the big card of racing this Friday night at Australia Track A (Moonee Valley, Vic.), with the running of the W.S. Cox Plate, the world's richest weight-for-age race. See you back then

Using Brisnet Ultimate PPs to find value: 1) Strike rate vs. ROI

We always try to avoid sounding like any kind of corporate shill on these pages. But we also believe in giving credit where it's due.

So it is with the Brisnet Ulitimate PPs with Comments (BUPPC). Having used form guides all over the world (the ones in Hungary used to suck), we can safely say that this product - at $3 a pop online - is your best handicapping bet in the business. It's got everything you need except the 3X magnification reading glasses some of us older folks need to read it. But that's a small complaint.

Bigger picture, the BUPPC suits all handicapping tastes. Let's take the top section first from the number and name of the horse down to the comment box. On the graphic at left you will see all the figures marked off in colors - that's the part we're referring to and it's a number-cruncher's dream. It shows jockey season stats with horse run-style and trainer, trainer stats focused on today's conditions, horse's lifetime performance stats on all tracks and surfaces, bloodline stats and even wet-track breeding and sales stats. These essential tools can combine to give readers a significant value-player's edge, as we'll explain.

One way price-players can use these "top stats", as we call them, to get an edge is to see how jockeys, trainers or the two together fare with horses at a price. First, go to the Brisnet.com home page, scroll down and click on Ultimate PPs w/Comments and then Explanation of the Ultimate PP's w/ Comments to get a full-screen version which you can print.

Once you've done that, look at the last (right-hand-side) column of numbers for both jockey and trainer, labeled numbers 2 and 3 on the big sheet. There you will see a vertical list of either positive or negative numbers given to three significant figures. These are the Returns on Investment (ROIs) for the jockey and trainer in each of the situations noted in the first (left-hand-side) column. The explanation on the web-site is very helpful in explaining how the figures are derived and what they mean. It's up to the players to find value with them.

Take ROI first. Larger ROI is obviously a good thing but for longshot players the key to this statistic is the jockey's or trainer's winning percentage in the same situation. That information is in the middle column - the first list of percentages (the second list is the place percentages) - which tells you the win strike rate. A relatively low strike rate (say, less than 20%) on the same line as a positive ROI tells us that when that jockey, trainer or combination hits the winner's circle, it's at a price. The higher the differences, the bigger the longshots they brought home. And history, as we know, tends to repeat.

Nowhere moreso than in concert - and this information shows you when jockeys and trainers combine to hit winners at a price. That is in the horizontal row marked: JKYw/Trn L60. Much has been written about the importance of handicapping jockeys and trainers in tandem and we can only agree. With that in mind, we have had good wagering success in the past by finding big differences in that "combo-row" between the combination's strike rate and its return on investment.

Seems like when jockey-trainer combinations land horses at a price, they tend to do so regularly, even when their overall number of starts (the first column of numbers) together in that situation are low. Explaining why would likely force us to hack away further at the undergrowth of human psychology, so we'll leave that for another post. Maybe they just get along well. Whatever it is, the chemistry between some jockeys, trainers and some horses is both remarkable and - sometimes - revealable.

Of course, a low strike rate means it doesn't happen very often, but for price players that doesn't matter. Better to win less often at a price than more often on chalk, right? So if the price-horse you like in a particular race shows a strikingly high ROI number in the Jockey/Trainer row, especially taking into account the strike rate on the same row, you might not necessarily have the winner, but you definitely have a live one. You can't ask for much more than that from a form guide.

We'll delve into the second part of the BUPPCs - the "bottom stats" - in our next post. Good luck out there.

Essential handicapping tools: 2) The heavy-duty stapler

We old-school paper-and-pen handicappers have an attachment to the physical tools of our trade similar to the way later-comers love their laptops. We have our favorites and we never stop pimping them.

Such is the way with the heavy duty stapler that you see in the picture. What so great about these things, you ask? You'll know if you've ever tried stapling a 70-page form guide together with the dinky little one that sits on your desk That's right, 70 pages. We're talking about Brisnet Ultimate PPs With Comments here, and they can run at least that over a 10-race card or - more likely - a 12-race contest. Now that's a stack of paper and needs a serious piece of hardware to handle it.

We'll get to the Brisnet Ultimates over the next few posts. But before that you'd better get yourself a heavy-duty stapler - we recommend the Bostitch Model PHD-60 that takes Stanley Bostitch SB35PHD staples. Those babies will penetrate the thickest stack of PPs you can download without burning your printer out - and yes, more in later posts on printing tips. Attaching more than 50 pages takes a little muscle, but just put it on the floor and push hard. This thing can take a lot of punishment.

Of course, you could just download the PPs onto your laptop and scroll down through the pages without touching a sheet of paper and therefore never needing to shell out $20 for one of these things. But that would miss the visceral thrill of the form guide, and for old-school types that's a part of the overall fun. Small price to pay.

Essential handicapping tools: 1) The King Size Sharpie

Here's a question about horse racing that many newcomers - and even some veterans - rarely ask themselves.

Where does the morning line come from?

In days gone by, a handicapper was employed by every racetrack in the United States to set the morning line (ML) odds for each horse in each race. Bear in mind that this person's decisions weren't meant to reflect what chance s/he thought each horse had in each race. Rather, they reflected what that person thought the betting market would look like when the horses jumped - a prediction of what price the betting public would make each horse on the pari-mutuel totalizator (tote).

You would expect this process to have been pretty well computerized by now, and apparently that's the direction harness racing is moving in with the Trackmaster program. But as far as we can tell, thoroughbred racing still hangs in there with the single employed line-setter. Even in wagering-friendly countries like the U.K. and Australia, the only market available to punters there trying to bet into American races is the American morning line.

Having the morning line set by a single individual who is not a professional bookmaker creates wagering opportunities. As David Hill points out in this excellent blog post, even though the morning line setter gets the post-time favorite right about 70% of the time, the differences between prediction and actual starting prices (SPs) at either end of the scale can vary widely. The morning line plays to human psychology in causing us to doubt our own abilities and trust more in the word of others when making decisions, Hill points out. The result is over-bet short-priced favorites and under-bet long-shots. And therein lie opportunities.

We will discuss in further blog posts how to use this knowledge to help us handicap long-shots better. But for the moment, lets take Hill's advice and get rid of the morning line. We don't need one person's opinion on a the relative merits of each horse in a race before we even get down to business. We don't even know, most of the time, who this person is what sort of record they have at getting the SPs right.

It's our handicapping job to form our own opinions, at least first. The morning line usually winds up being a major distraction because it makes us second-guess our handicapping decisions. So fire the line setter and do it yourself.

Step One is written for pen-and-paper 'cappers like myself but I'm sure the smartphone users can find an app somewhere that will help. Once you have your PPs stapled together with your heavy-duty stapler (see future posts), take a King Size Sharpie like the one at the top of this post.

Shut off your short-term memory (if you still have one) and begin the job of blacking out every morning line under every horse, and anywhere else you see the ML, like the list at the back of the Brisnet Ultimate PPs (also the subject of a future post). You'll find that the chiseled nib of the King Size Sharpie is exactly the right thickness for this task. Then you're ready to get down to the serious business of handicapping the race yourself without the morning line peeking over your shoulder.

Step Two is to formulate your own ML. We'll deal with that in an upcoming post.

Official tipping results for Caulfield Cup day, October 19

RePete's picks on the ten-race Caulfield Cup card turned out well although a few close finishes - especially Miracles of Life's dead-heat in the Caulfield Sprint at 6/1- hurt a little. He hit two winners amongst his minor-place-getters at double-figure odds, landed the (local) Pick-3 on races 6, 7 and 8, picked two keyed exacta (winning pick over a minor pick) and five boxed exactas (winner and second-placegetter picked in any order). He aims to improve on this by landing at least one box trifecta next week.

Here are his consolidated results for the 10-race Caulfield Cup day card:

Winning picks made: 10; finished first: 3*; ratio: 30%; average SP: 6-1*
Non-winning picks made: 23; finished first: 4; ratio: 17.4%; average SP: 9.2-1
Total picks made: 33; finished on board: 15; ratio: 45%; average SP: 6.2-1
(*includes dead-heat)

Below is the table of results for his individual picks followed by their number, finishing position and official starting price

1  Tender         9     X      $21
    Sea Spray    4    1st     $4.25
    Bella Capri   5    X       $11

2   Careless         6    3rd     $6
     Liberation     10    X      $9
     Petrology       7     X      $12

3   Lady Macan    4    X       $8.50
     Tears of Joy   11    X       $26
     Set Square      8   1st       $7.50
     Maastricht       3   2nd     $1.90

4   Kumaon           1    X        $3.75
     Fontein Ruby  12   1st       $13
     Bachman          3    X        $8

5    Manawanui   3    X        $8
      River Lad     1    X        $13
      Leebaz         6    X        $5.50

6    Sweet Idea        3    1st        $3.50
      Catkins             4    3rd        $4
      Diamond Drille  1      X        $26

7    Contributer  2    1st       $7.50
      Kingdoms    5    X        $10
      Signoff         9    3rd      $5

8   Miracles of Life    4*    1stDH  $7
     Pago Rock           6       X        $31
     Shamal Wind        7     3rd       $6

9  Rising Romance        16    2nd     $12
    Lucia Valentina          15    3rd     $4
    Who Shot TheBarm. 11     X       $11
    Lidari                        14    X       $8.50

10  Cradle Me            4    2nd      $6
      Anatina                 3     X        $2.10
      Lonhruge             10    X        $100
      Messina Nymph   11   1st       $5.50

Up next Friday night (U.S. time) is the Cox Plate - the world's richest weight-for-age race. We're at Moonee Valley for that one - probably the most challenging track in Australia for picking winners. All the best!

Why do handicappers read other people's tipsheets anyway?

Our relative success with RePete's selections for Caulfield (Australia) last Friday night - see the previous two posts - got us thinking. Are we really adding any value by tipping other players who probably have their own methods and opinions? And if we are, how will we know? For that matter, how will they?

Let's take the example whether someone like RePete (in Sydney) adds value to U.S.-based wagerers on Australian racing. On its face, there should be no question - his local knowledge is almost certainly better than ours because: a) he lives there; b) he handicaps races from every state in Australia every week; and c) he has a remarkable racehorse memory. But there's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip, as they say. Just because he knows his stuff doesn't necessarily mean we can profit by it. From our experience, the opposite is often true - readers end up more confused at the end of a tipsheet than at the beginning.

How to avoid this? Timeliness is one solution. We've all had the experience of reading a tipsheet the night before pointing out a hot 15/1 shot only to see it open at 5/2 the next day. By contrast, holding tips back until a few hours before post lets the tipster include significant market movements. This is especially so in countries in like Australia and the U.K., where fixed-odds betting is legal. Remember: Money talks, bullshit walks.

Openness is another. Twitter users are very familiar with the amateur tipster who shouts loud when he scores big but keeps strangely quiet the rest of the time. Even some of the better professional handicappers in horse racing don't publish open records of the results of all their tips. But if you go public with your tips then we think you are obligated to report openly too, in a way that makes it clear how much or how little value you added to your readers - not just brag about your big scores.

So let's turn this into an action plan. When we post tips we pledge to do it at a time that will optimize wagering, or have a good reason why not. When we post, we'll make it clear which is the winning pick and which are for the minor money and we'll try to limit the picks in each race to three unless there appears to be a superfecta in play.

Once we post, we have a duty to follow and report. We'll post our results as soon as possible after the card is over - both for individual picks and for overall results. That said, we don't want to make the common mistake in handicapping of letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. So although the primary result we'll report will be how many winning picks actually won and at what starting price (SP), we will also include a category for the ratio of place picks that also won and their SPs.

But we will drill down further than that. Hitting minor place-getters as well as winners is essential to players of the vertical exotics (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, etc.) and to most contest players, which pay second place. So we will also note how often the tipped horses actually hit the board and at what average price. We'll note if we hit a big play but will avoid howling at the moon (too much) if we land, say, a big trifecta. Long-term value is what we're trying to add here.

Let us know if you think there's something important we're forgetting. We will post RePete's complete results for Caulfield Cup Day following this. Good luck at the Cox Plate this Friday.

Caulfield Cup aftermath - RePete keeps repeating

It was a solid day at Caulfield yesterday for our analyst RePete. With his top picks he hit the board in 6 out of ten races including the last 5 races in a row - which would have taken top prize in the Twinspires 5-for-5 competition - with 3 winners. He also picked up some nice results on his second picks (2 winners, 2 minor placings), 3rd picks (1 winner, 2 minor placings) and his three fourth picks (1 win, 1 minor placing) to help out exotics players. Below shows the table of results for his picks yesterday followed by their number, finishing position and official starting price.


1  Tender         9     X      $21
    Sea Spray    4    1st     $4.25
    Bella Capri   5    X       $11

2   Careless         6    3rd     $6
     Liberation     10    X      $9
     Petrology       7     X      $12

3   Lady Macan    4    X       $8.50
     Tears of Joy   11    X       $26
     Set Square      8   1st       $7.50
     Maastricht       3   2nd     $1.90

4   Kumaon           1    X        $3.75
     Fontein Ruby  12   1st       $13
     Bachman          3    X        $8

5    Manawanui   3    X        $8
      River Lad     1    X        $13
      Leebaz         6    X        $5.50

6    Sweet Idea        3    1st        $3.50
      Catkins             4    3rd        $4
      Diamond Drille  1      X        $26

7    Contributer  2    1st       $7.50
      Kingdoms    5    X        $10
      Signoff         9    3rd      $5

8   Miracles of Life    4*    1stDH  $7
     Pago Rock           6       X        $31
     Shamal Wind        7     3rd       $6

9  Rising Romance        16    2nd     $12
    Lucia Valentina          15    3rd     $4
    Who Shot TheBarm. 11     X       $11
    Lidari                        14    X       $8.50

10  Cradle Me            4    2nd      $6
      Anatina                 3     X        $2.10
      Lonhruge             10    X        $100
      Messina Nymph   11   1st       $5.50

Convergence is the key to handicapping tonight's tough Caulfield Cup card

It can be difficult enough for the American player taking on a competitive card of Australian racing on just any regular wagering day. But the Caulfield Cup, Australia's second biggest race by prizemoney and one of the world's premier mile-and-a-half turf events, and its competitive undercard this Saturday (Friday night U.S. time) offers its own unique set of wagering challenges.

Luckily, this blog's Australian-based form analyst (let's call him RePete, because he tends to do that) has decades of experience handicapping just about every track in Australia and even beyond. He's been steadily tracking the progress over the past few seasons of every horse that matters on Caulfield's card today and not much has evaded his vigilance. Let's hand it over to him.


The track
Caulfield is generally known as a track that favors pace-pressers and stalkers because of its tight turns and short final stretch - 2 furlongs.  The general rule is a horse needs to be in the first four around the turn to have a reasonable chance of winning. However, there are some exceptions to this rule, as we will see. Sometimes the track has a daily bias but this depends on how far out the rail is set - the further out, the less bias. Track bias doesn't usually change from race to race. Racing begins at 9:50 p.m. Eastern Time.

Race 1
The David Hayes-trained TENDER (No. 9) is a nice play at a decent price ($11 overnight) in the opener, the 7-furlong Yellowglen Plate for 3-year-old fillies. Hayes brought her in from Adelaide with a good two-year-old record in better company than this back in the (Australian) autumn and the stable are very strong shippers. Add in SEA SPRAY (No. 4) and BELLA CAPRI (No. 5) - both promising fillies at around $8-9. Pick: 9-4-5

Race 2
Sydney import CARELESS (No. 6) is a lightly-raced maiden trained by the Godolphin Stable's in-house trainer, John O'Shea, and arrives for the listed Crown Lager Stakes for 3-year-old colts off two solid on-pace efforts in Sydney. He's good value at $7 overnight and the stable knows when to bring them to Melbourne. Behind that it's very open - maybe add LIBERATION (No. 12) at around $10 and PETROLOGY (No. 7) at $15 overnight to juice exotics. Pick: 6-10-7

Race 3
The first leg of the Pick-3 is the listed Ethereal Stakes over 1.25 miles for 3-year-old fillies and Sydney shipper LADY MACAN (No. 4) looks good at the $8-9 mark. She ran a strong fourth last start against the colts at Randwick (Sydney) to Hampton Court, who has held his form well, and Lady Macan returns to her own sex today. Longshot TEARS OF JOY (No. 11) should be suited by the extra two furlongs here and could hit the board at 30/1. Add SET SQUARE (No. 8) at 10/1 and the overbet favorite MAASTRICHT (No. 3) to exotics. Pick: 4-11-8-3

Race 4
If Maastricht does well in the previous race, watch the market on FONTEIN RUBY (NO. 12) in the G3 1.25-mile Caulfield Classsic from $12 overnight price. She narrowly beat that colt at G2 level last start at Flemington (Melbourne) and drops in grade today. That said, the $4 favorite KUMAON (No. 1) - whose fast-closing effort last week at G1 level was a great trial for today's race - is the one to beat here. Add BACHMAN (No. 3), another Sydney shipper from the astute stable of Gerald Ryan, a former Melbourne jockey, to your exotics. Pick: 1-12-3

Race 5
Yet another Sydney shipper looks good in the 7-furlong Moonga Stakes. MANAWANUI (No. 3) took significant money overnight into about $6 for several reasons - he has a great strike rate (7 from 19), is proven at the class and loves this distance. Add Queensland shipper RIVER LAD (No. 1) at around $8  - his second-up 4th to the outstanding Chautauqua was a strong pointer to this race and he won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane over the winter. The favorite LEEBAZ (no. 6) is first up from a five-month spell so watch the money there. Pick: 3-1-6.

Race 6
Tough to call the G2 Tristarc Stakes for mares between Gai Waterhouse-trained SWEET IDEA (No. 3) and CATKINS (No. 4), both around $3.50, but leaning to the former. She is coming off an excellent fourth to Trust in a Gust last start at Caulfield and has speed to burn. The latter is an ultra-consistent mare who has hit the board 20 out of 25 lifetime starts - a great play for 5-for-5 show backers. Add the other Waterhouse-trained DIAMOND DRILLE (No. 1) at a juicy $17 overnight - she won a G1 stakes last autumn and the stable is known for picking up big races with second-stringers. Pick: 3-4-1

Race 7
The ultra-consistent CONTRIBUTER (No. 2) at about $5 looks the one to beat in the G3 David Jones Cup over 1.25 miles. Having his first start in Australia and first overall since June but his first-up record in England was four starts for three wins and he's very well-bred, by High Chaparral. Key him over Brisbane invader KINGDOMS (No. 5) at around $9 overnight - he came to Sydney for a strong-finishing fourth at G1 level last start. The drop-back from 1.5 to 1.25 miles today should suit favored SIGNOFF (No. 9) at around $5. Pick: 2-5-9

Race 8
Our best bet of the day is in the G2 5.5-furlong Caulfield Sprint: Adelaide speedster MIRACLES OF LIFE (No. 4). This outstanding 4-year-old mare is returning to the scene of her greatest triumph as a 2-year-old in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield and has taken significant overnight money from $12 into around $8. She is coming off a strong autumn campaign in Adelaide and I expect her to lead all the way today and run them off their legs. Key her over PAGO ROCKS (No. 6) which could bob up at around 15/1 and don't leave the favorite SHAMAL WIND (No. 7) out of exotics. Pick: 4*-6x7

Race 9
The G1 Caulfield Cup (2400 meters/1.5 miles), worth $3 million, is one of the world's great mile-and-a-half races and a true staying test now that that the European invaders have started setting the pace. Punters this year favor another mare to win the Cup in the shape of LUCIA VALENTINA (No. 15). Her form is excellent but she's too short at 5/2. I prefer the other lightweight mare RISING ROMANCE (No. 16) - she had a G1 victory over Lucia Valentina in the AJC (Sydney) Oaks over this distance in April and is currently at a juicy $17. We'll add Sydney-sider WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (No. 11) at around $20 and LIDARI (No. 14), yet another lightweight chance at around $10 for the exotics. Pick: 16-15-11-14

Race 10
Looking for something to beat the 8/5 favorite ANATINA (No. 3) in the last race, the 5.5-furlong listed Alinghi Stakes for fillies and mares, I've landed on another Sydney invader. CRADLE ME (No. 4) is a very consistent mare coming off a 3-month lay-off but has excellent first-up form and has hit the board in fully half of her 30 starts so looks a good play in the 5-for-5. She's about $5.50 overnight. Let's drop a real bomb for the minor money with 60/1 pop LONHRUGE (No. 10), an inconsistent galloper who has shown ability in the past and is still fresh. If that's too rich for you, try adding the well-traveled MESSINA NYMPH (No. 11) at around the $7 quote. Pick: 4-3-10-11.

Good luck and see you next week for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley.

Horrific falls a risk of horse racing: Lest we forget the Caulfield Cup, 1885

For those of us who follow horse racing in the U.S. and Australia, it's been a tough week with three promising young jockeys killed in race falls - two in Australia and one in the U.S. Debate has begun in both countries over whether training tactics or jockey riding strategies are placing jockeys' lives at risk.But we need to recall some of the pragmatics of the sport we love

Those of us with long memories remember a time when horrific jockey injuries and deaths were almost considered par for the course in a sport with millions of dollars worth of private and public money on the line. And we recall a time when young jockeys entering the sport were thought of as akin to young men joining the military. They received room, board and an opportunity to learn a trade from the masters with the possibility of a very comfortable living and a satisfying retirement. In return they were going to be asked, every so often, to put their lives on the line.

Every time the jockey dons his or her silks, picks up his whip and heads for the mounting yard they bring to mind a soldier donning his uniform, strapping on his gun and falling in. Sure, it will probably be the same old, same old. Obey the orders do what you're told, follow the rules, everything will be fine. But maybe not. For Juan Saez, Caitlyn Forrest and Carly-Mae Pye this week, it wasn't. And three young lives were lost.

But this week is an aberration. We have had long periods of no jockey fatalities despite the huge number of horse races run each day around the world, and we will have more. And its easy to fall into the trap of thinking that it's never been this bad.

I recently discovered an account of one of the most horrific racetrack accidents in all of Australian horse racing that occurred 129 years ago to this race day, in front of the packed grandstand of the Caulfield raceourse in the Caulfield Cup of 1885. Here's the link to a report from the day of the fall in the now-defunct Melbourne Argus.

An excerpt:

"M'Grade, who had been on Tom Brown, looked very ghastly. His nose was broken in, one arm hung   loosely and what with dust and blood and his white face, those around thought that he also had been killed outright. M'Grath, the rider of Prince Imperial, was also senseless, having received a blow on the head   when his horse rolled over. The tiny rider Tuomey was stretched alongside his dead  horse, Uarah, who had been instantly killed, and at first it seemed that both horse and jockey were in the same condition. Com- miseration for the tiny boy lying on one end of the stretcher was greater on account of his small size. Wyman, the rider of Sardius, was one of the first down, and as a dozen  horses seemed to roll right on top of him his escape from instant death was a miracle. He, too, was picked up unconscious, suffering from   concussion of the brain."

Today is Caulfield Cup Day, 2014. Let's give thanks to how much safer the sport has become. Lest we forget.

Rolling back coupled entries rolls back insurance, trust

Bashing horse-racing's oft-maligned coupled-entry rule is getting increasingly popular amongst horse players. But rules can also be like cops - never there when you need them.

Take a recent example at Santa Anita racetrack in California (see replay below). Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had two horses - second favorite Fed Biz and longshot Sky Kingdom - entered in the Grade One Awesome Again Stakes (purse $300,000) up against red-hot favorite Shared Belief, who looked unbeatable. From the break, Sky Kingdom's jockey Victor Espinoza took the very unusual move of running his horse in the 4-wide lane around the long first turn, pushing Shared Belief 5- and 6-wide. Shared Belief was forced to come from several lengths behind after covering significant extra ground to beat Fed Biz by just a neck.

Many horseplayers drew the conclusion - rightly or wrongly - that Baffert had  given Espinoza instructions to do as he did, hoping to make the race easier for his first-string horse, Fed Biz. With no proof of this, only Espinoza was punished for his actions. But race replays gave bettors on Sky Kingdom the distinct impression that their money never had a chance. 

The coupled entry rule is supposed to head this off. Two horses entered by the same connections in the same race always gives punters the impression that one might be trying help the other. But without the coupled-entry rule, which is which? Realizing this dilemma, racetrack officials con-joined those horses for the betting public in recognition that punters needed to be compensated if they bet the 'wrong one' in the couple.

However, the rule has become unpopular with both the racing establishment and even horseplayers themselves. The California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) voted to eliminate coupled entries in 2006, leaving connections free to enter more than one horse in any race, each as a separate betting entity. Other states have followed or are considering it, while still others have been rolling back the rule by exempting graded stakes races. Plus, existing state-by-state coupled-entry rules often apply only to owners, not trainers. 

But without the coupled-entry rule, bettors must figure out which of the owner's - or trainer's - multiple entries is the one 'supposed' to win. With the rule, they get a kind of free insurance that covers the risk of not being party to pre-race discussions, albeit at a reduced price. But that can also be a huge help when betting mulitple plays in the horizontal exotics, which many of us do.

For example, if Sky Kingdom had been coupled with Fed Biz in the Awesome Again, bettors on Sky Kingdom would have saved thousands of dollars collectively on outright place and show bets - plus exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets that combined him with other place-getters - by substiting Fed Biz. Sure, the payout would have been less - but most bettors are prepared to accept the insurance on such wagers. They don't want to have to double their stake by 'bracketing' uncoupled entries from the same connections.

Then there's the bigger issue of public trust. Unwitting newcomers who bet on Sky Kingdom might never make another wager on a horse race again out of sheer disgust. Experienced players were shocked at the egregiousness of the tactics employed and might well begin questioning the results of other top events, too.

That would seem to be exactly what racing doesn't need. Opponents of eliminating coupled entries often claim it will increase a track's betting handle by making more betting choices available. But at what cost? Ask the average joes who dropped some hard-earned on Sky Kingdom in the Awesome Again.

Incidents like this seem to point to the need for tightening coupled entry rules, not further loosening. But on that, horse-racing administrators appear to be sitting in the squad car eating donuts.

U.S. horse racing needs cameras in stewards' rooms

There's an old saying in legal circles: Justice should not only be done, it should be seen to be done. Nowhere is this more true than in American horse-racing.

Each day, horse-racing stewards - the judges, juries and executioners of our sport - make decisions at tracks that can affect hundreds of thousands - even millions - of dollars of wagering money. They hear protests from jockeys, launch inquiries of their own and collect evidence from all sides. They listen, weigh, decide and sometimes overturn race results that can turn winners into losers and vice versa.

All in secret.

No cameras, no microphones, no way of verifying the stewards' rulings, no recourse. The result is a sense of mistrust and - occasionally - even outright disbelief. U.S. horse-players are for the most part still recovering from the shocking non-disqualification of Bayern for causing massive interference at the start of America's premier race, the Breeders Cup Classic, more than a week after it happened at Santa Anita racetrack in California.

The worst part of it is: we don't know what happened in the stewards' room after the race was run. Did Bayern's trainer, Sanat Anita-based Bob Baffert, telephone the Santa Anita stewards in the midst of deliberations as he has previously? Did the stewards discuss Bayern's previous race habits? Was the decision unanimous? Were American race-goers who bet on the favorite Shared Belief robbed?

In the land that invented live legal television news with the groundbreaking CourtTV in 1991, that's just not good enough. CourtTV pioneer Steven Brill, who also founded American Lawyer magazine, understood that the public couldn't retain faith in a criminal-justice system that kept its most important process - the criminal trial - largely hidden from public view. So he set up cameras and micophones in courtrooms and broadcast it on television, creating an American phenomenon.

As Wired magazine journalist Jeff Goodell wrote in a 2003 interview with Brill: "Court TV destroys the wall between society and its laws, making reporters and jurors of us all."

So it goes with horse-players. In the 21st Century, we all have to be our own jurors and reporters. And so a sector like racing that exists on open information cannot function effectively with a judicial system that resembles a Freemasons' meeting. Heck, even Congress telecasts its deliberations, for better or for worse. American horse-racing needs to do better.

If that sounds hard, consider the situation in Australia. There, all proceedings involving decisions that could theoretically overturn a race result are broadcast and aired live over the track feed. No more guessing what the stewards are accusing the jockey (or trainer) of or what kind of defense they are mounting. It's all out there, and the bettors love it - as the Twitter feeds of American players who have discovered Australian tracks will attest.

The idea was so good that the British adopted it in 2007 and it is now a standard feature of their race broadcasting as well.

American horse-players are now starting to advocate for more openness in the sport. Let's start by imitating the Australian model and broadcasting all stewards-inquiry deliberations live over the track feed. It's good for the players and good for the sport. More openness in the system means more confidence amongst the customers, and that's good for everybody's business.