As the clock winds down to Australian horse-racing's biggest day - Melbourne Cup day, the first Tuesday in November - in a couple of weeks, some of Australia's better form-horses have shifted camp to the state of Victoria. Tonight's Geelong Cup is a traditional lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup and the undercard is typically competitive and value-laden.
Our Sydney-based Australian racing form analyst RePete has scanned races 3 through 9 at Geelong and will try to hit some value-play exotics to get us set for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley (Melbourne) on Friday night. Post time for the first of our races - Race 3 - is at 10:35 Eastern Time.
Race 3
SOUTHERN METEOR (No. 7) at around 6-1 looks the play here. He was a good winner at Sale (Vic.) over this distance last start and before that got too far out of his ground to Maastricht, who ran a good second at Caulfield last Saturday at Grade 2. Drop a bomb for second with GLITZABEEL (No. 10), whose recent New Zealand form isn't great but she's well-bred and has ability at about 20-1. Pick: 7-10-ANY
Race 4
Let's try BEL RHYTHM (No. 4) here at a very nice 20-1 quote. She's coming off poor form prior to a six-month layoff but her first up record is 6:1-2-1 and the drop-back to 6 furlongs here also helps her. The unbeaten GOLD BAR (No. 14) at around 5-1 will be hard to beat coming off a win at this distance at Ballarat last start. She's an on-the speed runner who won here over 5 furlongs at her debut. Pick: 4-14-1x5x9
Race 5
Big-race form suggests that AGGREGATOR (No. 2) is ready for this and should win, but he's not much value at around 3-1. However, he did run a good second to Big Memory - who has since won the Herbert Power Handicap - during the autumn over 1.6 miles and last start finished well for third at Caulfield over today's distance. So let's stand him out in exactas and trifectas with MISTER IMPATIENCE (No. 1) at a juicy 20-1, who has poor recent form but ran well on slow tracks in the U.K. in 2013. For third, box BEAUTY PERCEPTION (No. 3) and MARTINVAST (No. 5) both at around 12-1 and DON DOREMO (No. 9) at about 9-2. Pick: 2-1-3x5x9
Race 6
The lightly-raced Sydney invader YESTERJOY (No. 15) looks rock solid off a last-start win over 10 furlongs at Hawkesbury (Provincial NSW) at around the 8-1 quote. She's from the strong Strawberry Hill Stud-Clarry Connors barn and looks primed for a run at the VRC (Melbourne) Oaks so expect her to show up well today. Don't leave out MIRACLE THE SECOND (No. 2) at around a fat 20/1 quote, coming off some excellent form in Adelaide including a last-start 3rd in a listed stakes event. Pick: 15-2-1x4x6x9
Race 7
The feature race is the Geelong Cup and it's a very open betting affair with around 6-1 the field overnight. We'll take a line through last Friday night's Caulfield Cup form to pick ZANBAGH (No. 4) at around 6-1. This 4-year-old mare finished second in the AJC (Sydney) Oaks over 1.5 miles last autumn to Rising Romance, who finished a game second to Admire Rakti in last week's race. She also beat home Caulfield Cup third placegetter Lucia Valentina in the Oaks and today's distance will suit her better than last week's third in the Benalla (Vic.) Cup. over 10 furlongs. Topweight SERTORIUS (No. 1) will probably start favorite at around 7-2 as he takes a significant drop in grade here from his recent weight-for-age Grade One outings. Add MORE THAN SACRED (NO. 5) to exotics off a solid second in the Cranbourne Cup ten days ago and currently 6-1. She has 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Pick: 4-1x5
Race 8
Top pick GRIANTE (No. 2) is drawn wide in barrier 16 of 18 and the run to the home turn is short at Geelong, which is shaped like the harness track that runs inside it. But that should add to her value, coming off an excellent last-start win over this distance at Caulfield and expect her to be finishing over the top of them at around 6-1. The lightly-raced RIVER DELTA (No. 8) comes in with excellent city form and looks the danger at about 5-1 Keep an eye on longshot JACINTA (No. 15) at 15-1 - she has a great record at this distance and is coming off a good third last start at Canberra over a furlong further than today's race. Pick: 2-8-15
Race 9
Might need to focus on the exotic plays here as CADILLAC MOUNTAIN (No. 3) is the class of the field and should win but will be too short to back outright at around 3-1. Instead let's drop in SADAQA (No. 4 ) to place - he's taking a four-kilo off an ordinary effort at Wangaratta (Vic.) but that was first-up off a 4-month lay-off and his previous form was excellent. The step up to 7.5 furlongs will suit him at a nice 14-1 quote. For the third money, try adding lightweight hope REALIST (No. 12) at around 8-1. He lugged four kilos more than today's impost to win at Pakenham (Vic.) two starts ago and is one-for-one at the distance. Add big bomb PHANTOM BREW (No. 1) at about 30-1 for the superfecta. Pick: 3-4-12-1
Any bankroll should be saved for the big card of racing this Friday night at Australia Track A (Moonee Valley, Vic.), with the running of the W.S. Cox Plate, the world's richest weight-for-age race. See you back then
All the horse racing short cuts
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Using Brisnet Ultimate PPs to find value: 1) Strike rate vs. ROI
We always try to avoid sounding like any kind of corporate shill on these pages. But we also believe in giving credit where it's due.
So it is with the Brisnet Ulitimate PPs with Comments (BUPPC). Having used form guides all over the world (the ones in Hungary used to suck), we can safely say that this product - at $3 a pop online - is your best handicapping bet in the business. It's got everything you need except the 3X magnification reading glasses some of us older folks need to read it. But that's a small complaint.
Bigger picture, the BUPPC suits all handicapping tastes. Let's take the top section first from the number and name of the horse down to the comment box. On the graphic at left you will see all the figures marked off in colors - that's the part we're referring to and it's a number-cruncher's dream. It shows jockey season stats with horse run-style and trainer, trainer stats focused on today's conditions, horse's lifetime performance stats on all tracks and surfaces, bloodline stats and even wet-track breeding and sales stats. These essential tools can combine to give readers a significant value-player's edge, as we'll explain.
One way price-players can use these "top stats", as we call them, to get an edge is to see how jockeys, trainers or the two together fare with horses at a price. First, go to the Brisnet.com home page, scroll down and click onUltimate PPs w/Comments and then Explanation of the Ultimate PP's w/ Comments to get a full-screen version which you can print.
Once you've done that, look at the last (right-hand-side) column of numbers for both jockey and trainer, labeled numbers 2 and 3 on the big sheet. There you will see a vertical list of either positive or negative numbers given to three significant figures. These are the Returns on Investment (ROIs) for the jockey and trainer in each of the situations noted in the first (left-hand-side) column. The explanation on the web-site is very helpful in explaining how the figures are derived and what they mean. It's up to the players to find value with them.
Take ROI first. Larger ROI is obviously a good thing but for longshot players the key to this statistic is the jockey's or trainer's winning percentage in the same situation. That information is in the middle column - the first list of percentages (the second list is the place percentages) - which tells you the win strike rate. A relatively low strike rate (say, less than 20%) on the same line as a positive ROI tells us that when that jockey, trainer or combination hits the winner's circle, it's at a price. The higher the differences, the bigger the longshots they brought home. And history, as we know, tends to repeat.
Nowhere moreso than in concert - and this information shows you when jockeys and trainers combine to hit winners at a price. That is in the horizontal row marked: JKYw/Trn L60. Much has been written about the importance of handicapping jockeys and trainers in tandem and we can only agree. With that in mind, we have had good wagering success in the past by finding big differences in that "combo-row" between the combination's strike rate and its return on investment.
Seems like when jockey-trainer combinations land horses at a price, they tend to do so regularly, even when their overall number of starts (the first column of numbers) together in that situation are low. Explaining why would likely force us to hack away further at the undergrowth of human psychology, so we'll leave that for another post. Maybe they just get along well. Whatever it is, the chemistry between some jockeys, trainers and some horses is both remarkable and - sometimes - revealable.
Of course, a low strike rate means it doesn't happen very often, but for price players that doesn't matter. Better to win less often at a price than more often on chalk, right? So if the price-horse you like in a particular race shows a strikingly high ROI number in the Jockey/Trainer row, especially taking into account the strike rate on the same row, you might not necessarily have the winner, but you definitely have a live one. You can't ask for much more than that from a form guide.
We'll delve into the second part of the BUPPCs - the "bottom stats" - in our next post. Good luck out there.
So it is with the Brisnet Ulitimate PPs with Comments (BUPPC). Having used form guides all over the world (the ones in Hungary used to suck), we can safely say that this product - at $3 a pop online - is your best handicapping bet in the business. It's got everything you need except the 3X magnification reading glasses some of us older folks need to read it. But that's a small complaint.
Bigger picture, the BUPPC suits all handicapping tastes. Let's take the top section first from the number and name of the horse down to the comment box. On the graphic at left you will see all the figures marked off in colors - that's the part we're referring to and it's a number-cruncher's dream. It shows jockey season stats with horse run-style and trainer, trainer stats focused on today's conditions, horse's lifetime performance stats on all tracks and surfaces, bloodline stats and even wet-track breeding and sales stats. These essential tools can combine to give readers a significant value-player's edge, as we'll explain.
One way price-players can use these "top stats", as we call them, to get an edge is to see how jockeys, trainers or the two together fare with horses at a price. First, go to the Brisnet.com home page, scroll down and click on
Once you've done that, look at the last (right-hand-side) column of numbers for both jockey and trainer, labeled numbers 2 and 3 on the big sheet. There you will see a vertical list of either positive or negative numbers given to three significant figures. These are the Returns on Investment (ROIs) for the jockey and trainer in each of the situations noted in the first (left-hand-side) column. The explanation on the web-site is very helpful in explaining how the figures are derived and what they mean. It's up to the players to find value with them.
Take ROI first. Larger ROI is obviously a good thing but for longshot players the key to this statistic is the jockey's or trainer's winning percentage in the same situation. That information is in the middle column - the first list of percentages (the second list is the place percentages) - which tells you the win strike rate. A relatively low strike rate (say, less than 20%) on the same line as a positive ROI tells us that when that jockey, trainer or combination hits the winner's circle, it's at a price. The higher the differences, the bigger the longshots they brought home. And history, as we know, tends to repeat.
Nowhere moreso than in concert - and this information shows you when jockeys and trainers combine to hit winners at a price. That is in the horizontal row marked: JKYw/Trn L60. Much has been written about the importance of handicapping jockeys and trainers in tandem and we can only agree. With that in mind, we have had good wagering success in the past by finding big differences in that "combo-row" between the combination's strike rate and its return on investment.
Seems like when jockey-trainer combinations land horses at a price, they tend to do so regularly, even when their overall number of starts (the first column of numbers) together in that situation are low. Explaining why would likely force us to hack away further at the undergrowth of human psychology, so we'll leave that for another post. Maybe they just get along well. Whatever it is, the chemistry between some jockeys, trainers and some horses is both remarkable and - sometimes - revealable.
Of course, a low strike rate means it doesn't happen very often, but for price players that doesn't matter. Better to win less often at a price than more often on chalk, right? So if the price-horse you like in a particular race shows a strikingly high ROI number in the Jockey/Trainer row, especially taking into account the strike rate on the same row, you might not necessarily have the winner, but you definitely have a live one. You can't ask for much more than that from a form guide.
We'll delve into the second part of the BUPPCs - the "bottom stats" - in our next post. Good luck out there.
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