As the clock winds down to Australian horse-racing's biggest day - Melbourne Cup day, the first Tuesday in November - in a couple of weeks, some of Australia's better form-horses have shifted camp to the state of Victoria. Tonight's Geelong Cup is a traditional lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup and the undercard is typically competitive and value-laden.
Our Sydney-based Australian racing form analyst RePete has scanned races 3 through 9 at Geelong and will try to hit some value-play exotics to get us set for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley (Melbourne) on Friday night. Post time for the first of our races - Race 3 - is at 10:35 Eastern Time.
Race 3
SOUTHERN METEOR (No. 7) at around 6-1 looks the play here. He was a good winner at Sale (Vic.) over this distance last start and before that got too far out of his ground to Maastricht, who ran a good second at Caulfield last Saturday at Grade 2. Drop a bomb for second with GLITZABEEL (No. 10), whose recent New Zealand form isn't great but she's well-bred and has ability at about 20-1. Pick: 7-10-ANY
Race 4
Let's try BEL RHYTHM (No. 4) here at a very nice 20-1 quote. She's coming off poor form prior to a six-month layoff but her first up record is 6:1-2-1 and the drop-back to 6 furlongs here also helps her. The unbeaten GOLD BAR (No. 14) at around 5-1 will be hard to beat coming off a win at this distance at Ballarat last start. She's an on-the speed runner who won here over 5 furlongs at her debut. Pick: 4-14-1x5x9
Race 5
Big-race form suggests that AGGREGATOR (No. 2) is ready for this and should win, but he's not much value at around 3-1. However, he did run a good second to Big Memory - who has since won the Herbert Power Handicap - during the autumn over 1.6 miles and last start finished well for third at Caulfield over today's distance. So let's stand him out in exactas and trifectas with MISTER IMPATIENCE (No. 1) at a juicy 20-1, who has poor recent form but ran well on slow tracks in the U.K. in 2013. For third, box BEAUTY PERCEPTION (No. 3) and MARTINVAST (No. 5) both at around 12-1 and DON DOREMO (No. 9) at about 9-2. Pick: 2-1-3x5x9
Race 6
The lightly-raced Sydney invader YESTERJOY (No. 15) looks rock solid off a last-start win over 10 furlongs at Hawkesbury (Provincial NSW) at around the 8-1 quote. She's from the strong Strawberry Hill Stud-Clarry Connors barn and looks primed for a run at the VRC (Melbourne) Oaks so expect her to show up well today. Don't leave out MIRACLE THE SECOND (No. 2) at around a fat 20/1 quote, coming off some excellent form in Adelaide including a last-start 3rd in a listed stakes event. Pick: 15-2-1x4x6x9
Race 7
The feature race is the Geelong Cup and it's a very open betting affair with around 6-1 the field overnight. We'll take a line through last Friday night's Caulfield Cup form to pick ZANBAGH (No. 4) at around 6-1. This 4-year-old mare finished second in the AJC (Sydney) Oaks over 1.5 miles last autumn to Rising Romance, who finished a game second to Admire Rakti in last week's race. She also beat home Caulfield Cup third placegetter Lucia Valentina in the Oaks and today's distance will suit her better than last week's third in the Benalla (Vic.) Cup. over 10 furlongs. Topweight SERTORIUS (No. 1) will probably start favorite at around 7-2 as he takes a significant drop in grade here from his recent weight-for-age Grade One outings. Add MORE THAN SACRED (NO. 5) to exotics off a solid second in the Cranbourne Cup ten days ago and currently 6-1. She has 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Pick: 4-1x5
Race 8
Top pick GRIANTE (No. 2) is drawn wide in barrier 16 of 18 and the run to the home turn is short at Geelong, which is shaped like the harness track that runs inside it. But that should add to her value, coming off an excellent last-start win over this distance at Caulfield and expect her to be finishing over the top of them at around 6-1. The lightly-raced RIVER DELTA (No. 8) comes in with excellent city form and looks the danger at about 5-1 Keep an eye on longshot JACINTA (No. 15) at 15-1 - she has a great record at this distance and is coming off a good third last start at Canberra over a furlong further than today's race. Pick: 2-8-15
Race 9
Might need to focus on the exotic plays here as CADILLAC MOUNTAIN (No. 3) is the class of the field and should win but will be too short to back outright at around 3-1. Instead let's drop in SADAQA (No. 4 ) to place - he's taking a four-kilo off an ordinary effort at Wangaratta (Vic.) but that was first-up off a 4-month lay-off and his previous form was excellent. The step up to 7.5 furlongs will suit him at a nice 14-1 quote. For the third money, try adding lightweight hope REALIST (No. 12) at around 8-1. He lugged four kilos more than today's impost to win at Pakenham (Vic.) two starts ago and is one-for-one at the distance. Add big bomb PHANTOM BREW (No. 1) at about 30-1 for the superfecta. Pick: 3-4-12-1
Any bankroll should be saved for the big card of racing this Friday night at Australia Track A (Moonee Valley, Vic.), with the running of the W.S. Cox Plate, the world's richest weight-for-age race. See you back then
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