The track: Flemington racecourse is so big it runs no-turn six-furlong (1200 meter) races (the Straight Six) and the home stretch is almost three furlongs long, so closers are probably more strongly favored there than at any track in Australia. And with track conditions expected to be no worse than dead, track bias should be minimal, allowing form to play out.
Race 1: The track should suit lightly-raced Sydney shipper No. 7 Kermadec (7/1 ML), who finished fast for 2nd at Randwick (Sydney's largest track) last start over this distance two weeks ago and has a first-start maiden victory over Careless (No. 4) to her credit. Stratum Star (No. 2) is another big finisher making her mile debut - she's a last-start winner at this level. Wandjina (No. 3) is taking a big class drop here. Pick: 7-2x4x3.
Race 2: Fontein Ruby (No. 1) just keeps getting better and she looks too good for these despite her short even-money ML. At that price, try standing her out over 15/1 ML shot Yesterjoy (No. 10), which didn't appear suited by the tight Geelong circuit last start; add Sydney shipper No. 5 Muscovado (7/1) - a last-start Randwick winner - and No. 7 Lady Macan (10/1) to the exotics boxes. Pick: 1-10x5x7.
Race 3: At 20/1 overnight, No. 12 Spy Decoder from the powerful Cummings stable is one of the value plays of the day. He atoned for his poor effort at Grade One level two runs ago with a good win in Sydney last start and today's seven furlongs (1400 meters) favors him. Expect No. 1 Smokin' Joey (12/1) to be finishing hard and add No. 3 Generalife (5/1), No. 2 Alma's Fury (15/1) and No. 5 Limes (15/1) to what could be a big exotics play. Pick: 12-1x3x2x5.
Race 4: Very tough to call this one so we'll lean towards on-the-pace runners. Scissor Kick (No. 3) at 10/1 ML is in very good Sydney form with a recent 2nd-placing at Group One level and should appreciate the cutback from 7 furlongs to six here. But include No. 1 Rich Enuff (9/2), which is ultra-consistent at this level, has a 2-for-2 strike rate at the distance and is the likely pace-setter. Play the best price but box the exacta. Pick: 1x3
Race 5: Back to the closers here with No. 13 More Than Sacred, a price shot at 12/1 which came from well back on the turn in the Grade 3 Geelong Cup last start and before that was a fast-finishing 2nd at Cranbourne. Flemington's long stretch should suit her. For exotics add No. 1 Big Memory (9/2) taking a big class drop and No. 5 Let's Make Adeal (7/1) off a strong finish last start. We'll add No. 9 Signoff (9/2) No. 10 Marksmanship to juice the exotics. Pick: 13-1x5x9x10
Race 6: This year Australia's second-biggest weight-for-age race is a wagerer's dream at 5/1 the field. Lets take advantage by playing two on top at around 7/1 ML: No. 2 Happy Trails and No. 15 Rising Romance. The former was a fast-finishing sixth over the unsuitable Moonee Valley circuit last start and has been primed for this race. The latter ran a game second last start in the Caulfield Cup and looks to be still improving, though she's not well in at the weights. Play them over ML favorite No. 13 Criterion (5/1) and the 15/1 shot Spillway (No. 11), both of which will be suited by the track. Pick: 2x15-13x11.
Race 7: Today's best best is in the feature race - the Victoria Derby - but isn't much value at 9/5. Nonetheless No. 1 Hampton Court, from the powerful Gai Waterhouse stable, is in outstanding form in Sydney and strongly impressed with a very easy last-start win at Grade 1 level. He looks to be getting better with each start. Let's stand him out over a couple of price shots in No. 7 Nozomi, from the strong Freedman stable, and Sydney shipper no. 12 Gouldian, both at 20/1 ML. Add ML favorite (3/1) No. 13 Preferment and No. 11 Atmosphere at about 7/1 to the exotic plays. Pick: 1*-7x11x12x13.
Race 8: Perhaps the value play of the day lands in this race in No. 3 Diamond Drille at 20/1 ML. This classy mare was blocked for a run last start when 7th to today's ML favorite and Waterhouse stablemate No. 1 Sweet Idea (9/2), who is the second choice. Diamond Drille has a great mile record (2-for-2) and the stable is known for fielding strong second-stringers in big races. Add No. 2 Catkins (7/1), No. 4 May's Dream (5/1) and No. 14 Politeness (12/1) for the minor placings. Pick: 3-1x2x4x14.
Race 9: Legendary NSW bush jockey Robert Thompson makes a rare Melbourne appearance today to ride No. 5 Big Money (6/1) and we'll take that cue. This horse was a strong-finishing fourth two weeks ago at Caulfield, his first time out of the money, and he has a 3:2-1 record at the today's 6 furlongs. Box him in your exacta with the unbeaten 6/5 ML favorite Deep Field (No. 6), who has looked impressive but faces his toughest test to date. Take both in the trifecta over 30/1 shot No. 9 That's A Good Idea and No. 1 Bel Sprinter (5/1). Pick: 5x6-1x9
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