First rule of handicapping: believe in yourself

The easiest trap to fall into as a blogger is to fail to heed your own advice. Mea culpa on that one today.

In a post here a couple of days ago I warned handicappers to trust their own judgment and not be swayed by so-called experts. Yet in the opening race at Aqueduct Friday I did exactly that and it cost me big-time - almost certainly a spot in a big Derby Wars tournament I was aiming at for Saturday. In a field of just seven horses in a 2-year-old fillies Maiden I landed on what I thought would be the longest-shot of two roughies, Golden Luck at about 15/1.

But at opening price of 10/1 he looked bad value against the other long-shot, Naturally Won, at 14/1. The Aqueduct between-race announcers agreed, pointing out that Golden Luck should have been a much longer price than Naturally Won. I panicked and, with five minutes to go and the odds still heavily in Naturally Won's favor, switched to it. Bad decision. Golden Luck blew out late in the market to 27/1 while naturally Won stuck at 14/1. Golden Luck duly won and put one smart tournament player (not me) into tomorrow's $20,000 tournament.

Note to self: lots of other people hear that between-race analysis, too, and the money tends to follow what they say. You've already handicapped the race and made your pick. Remember Norman Vincent Peale: Believe in Yourself.