It can be difficult enough for the American player taking on a competitive card of Australian racing on just any regular wagering day. But the Caulfield Cup, Australia's second biggest race by prizemoney and one of the world's premier mile-and-a-half turf events, and its competitive undercard this Saturday (Friday night U.S. time) offers its own unique set of wagering challenges.
Luckily, this blog's Australian-based form analyst (let's call him RePete, because he tends to do that) has decades of experience handicapping just about every track in Australia and even beyond. He's been steadily tracking the progress over the past few seasons of every horse that matters on Caulfield's card today and not much has evaded his vigilance. Let's hand it over to him.
The track
Caulfield is generally known as a track that favors pace-pressers and stalkers because of its tight turns and short final stretch - 2 furlongs. The general rule is a horse needs to be in the first four around the turn to have a reasonable chance of winning. However, there are some exceptions to this rule, as we will see. Sometimes the track has a daily bias but this depends on how far out the rail is set - the further out, the less bias. Track bias doesn't usually change from race to race. Racing begins at 9:50 p.m. Eastern Time.
Race 1
The David Hayes-trained TENDER (No. 9) is a nice play at a decent price ($11 overnight) in the opener, the 7-furlong Yellowglen Plate for 3-year-old fillies. Hayes brought her in from Adelaide with a good two-year-old record in better company than this back in the (Australian) autumn and the stable are very strong shippers. Add in SEA SPRAY (No. 4) and BELLA CAPRI (No. 5) - both promising fillies at around $8-9. Pick: 9-4-5
Race 2
Sydney import CARELESS (No. 6) is a lightly-raced maiden trained by the Godolphin Stable's in-house trainer, John O'Shea, and arrives for the listed Crown Lager Stakes for 3-year-old colts off two solid on-pace efforts in Sydney. He's good value at $7 overnight and the stable knows when to bring them to Melbourne. Behind that it's very open - maybe add LIBERATION (No. 12) at around $10 and PETROLOGY (No. 7) at $15 overnight to juice exotics. Pick: 6-10-7
Race 3
The first leg of the Pick-3 is the listed Ethereal Stakes over 1.25 miles for 3-year-old fillies and Sydney shipper LADY MACAN (No. 4) looks good at the $8-9 mark. She ran a strong fourth last start against the colts at Randwick (Sydney) to Hampton Court, who has held his form well, and Lady Macan returns to her own sex today. Longshot TEARS OF JOY (No. 11) should be suited by the extra two furlongs here and could hit the board at 30/1. Add SET SQUARE (No. 8) at 10/1 and the overbet favorite MAASTRICHT (No. 3) to exotics. Pick: 4-11-8-3
Race 4
If Maastricht does well in the previous race, watch the market on FONTEIN RUBY (NO. 12) in the G3 1.25-mile Caulfield Classsic from $12 overnight price. She narrowly beat that colt at G2 level last start at Flemington (Melbourne) and drops in grade today. That said, the $4 favorite KUMAON (No. 1) - whose fast-closing effort last week at G1 level was a great trial for today's race - is the one to beat here. Add BACHMAN (No. 3), another Sydney shipper from the astute stable of Gerald Ryan, a former Melbourne jockey, to your exotics. Pick: 1-12-3
Race 5
Yet another Sydney shipper looks good in the 7-furlong Moonga Stakes. MANAWANUI (No. 3) took significant money overnight into about $6 for several reasons - he has a great strike rate (7 from 19), is proven at the class and loves this distance. Add Queensland shipper RIVER LAD (No. 1) at around $8 - his second-up 4th to the outstanding Chautauqua was a strong pointer to this race and he won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane over the winter. The favorite LEEBAZ (no. 6) is first up from a five-month spell so watch the money there. Pick: 3-1-6.
Race 6
Tough to call the G2 Tristarc Stakes for mares between Gai Waterhouse-trained SWEET IDEA (No. 3) and CATKINS (No. 4), both around $3.50, but leaning to the former. She is coming off an excellent fourth to Trust in a Gust last start at Caulfield and has speed to burn. The latter is an ultra-consistent mare who has hit the board 20 out of 25 lifetime starts - a great play for 5-for-5 show backers. Add the other Waterhouse-trained DIAMOND DRILLE (No. 1) at a juicy $17 overnight - she won a G1 stakes last autumn and the stable is known for picking up big races with second-stringers. Pick: 3-4-1
Race 7
The ultra-consistent CONTRIBUTER (No. 2) at about $5 looks the one to beat in the G3 David Jones Cup over 1.25 miles. Having his first start in Australia and first overall since June but his first-up record in England was four starts for three wins and he's very well-bred, by High Chaparral. Key him over Brisbane invader KINGDOMS (No. 5) at around $9 overnight - he came to Sydney for a strong-finishing fourth at G1 level last start. The drop-back from 1.5 to 1.25 miles today should suit favored SIGNOFF (No. 9) at around $5. Pick: 2-5-9
Race 8
Our best bet of the day is in the G2 5.5-furlong Caulfield Sprint: Adelaide speedster MIRACLES OF LIFE (No. 4). This outstanding 4-year-old mare is returning to the scene of her greatest triumph as a 2-year-old in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield and has taken significant overnight money from $12 into around $8. She is coming off a strong autumn campaign in Adelaide and I expect her to lead all the way today and run them off their legs. Key her over PAGO ROCKS (No. 6) which could bob up at around 15/1 and don't leave the favorite SHAMAL WIND (No. 7) out of exotics. Pick: 4*-6x7
Race 9
The G1 Caulfield Cup (2400 meters/1.5 miles), worth $3 million, is one of the world's great mile-and-a-half races and a true staying test now that that the European invaders have started setting the pace. Punters this year favor another mare to win the Cup in the shape of LUCIA VALENTINA (No. 15). Her form is excellent but she's too short at 5/2. I prefer the other lightweight mare RISING ROMANCE (No. 16) - she had a G1 victory over Lucia Valentina in the AJC (Sydney) Oaks over this distance in April and is currently at a juicy $17. We'll add Sydney-sider WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (No. 11) at around $20 and LIDARI (No. 14), yet another lightweight chance at around $10 for the exotics. Pick: 16-15-11-14
Race 10
Looking for something to beat the 8/5 favorite ANATINA (No. 3) in the last race, the 5.5-furlong listed Alinghi Stakes for fillies and mares, I've landed on another Sydney invader. CRADLE ME (No. 4) is a very consistent mare coming off a 3-month lay-off but has excellent first-up form and has hit the board in fully half of her 30 starts so looks a good play in the 5-for-5. She's about $5.50 overnight. Let's drop a real bomb for the minor money with 60/1 pop LONHRUGE (No. 10), an inconsistent galloper who has shown ability in the past and is still fresh. If that's too rich for you, try adding the well-traveled MESSINA NYMPH (No. 11) at around the $7 quote. Pick: 4-3-10-11.
Good luck and see you next week for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley.
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