Horse contest multiple entries smells like Wall St.

There's a good reason I don't play in no-limit poker tournaments. In most Texas Hold'em games, there's comes a point where whoever has the most chips is able to bully the other players into submission by making huge bets or going all-in. And if you aren't that guy, you're screwed.

In horse contests and tournaments, we have a similar phenomenon - multiple entries. Contests that allow players to buy two and sometimes three entries per game give those players a big advantage by letting them pay extra to reduce their odds. Effectively, these rules are favoring people with more money who can afford to buy the extra entries. As evidence, the National Handicapping Championship recently changed its rules to allow two entries per player in the main tournament.

As well-known "Horseplayers" personality Kevin Cox pointed out in Peter Thomas Fornatale's book 'The Winning Contest Player', taking a second entry reduces your odds of winning the NHC crown from 460-1 to 230-1.

No serious horseplayer with the resources to back him/her up would not do this. But why do contest organizers play along? Presumably, they want the big bucks these people bring to the table. Folks who buy two or three entries per tournament are obviously a more reliable source of revenue than the little guy trying to parlay a single qualifying entry, the thinking likely runs. And they also have a greater chance of winning. Wall Street and Washington, D.C. function on similar mentalities.

I recently played a single entry in an 8-bullet, $2 win/place qualifying tournament and made just over $101 - my second-best ROI result ever. I got beat out by a guy playing for a second seat in the tournament who made $110. Neither of his tickets in the big tournament wound up hitting the money. Not saying one of mine would have, but it would have been nice to go up against the guy in the main tournament just to see.

The fact is, allowing players to purchase multiple entries or occupy multiple seats at tournaments is seriously unfair to the thousands of horseplayers who have flocked to contests over the past few years looking for a better return than the pari-mutuel tote. Getting knocked out of a qualifier by a player who has already booked a seat in the tournament is counter-productive - demand is so high for big-money games on contest sites like Derby Wars that there's actually plenty of players ready to snatch up somebody else's vacated second seat. Derby Wars' big-money tournament qualifiers, for example, are routinely over-booked week after week.

Making a blanket single-entry rule across all platforms for all tournaments would truly level the playing field. It would force all players in the contest to make the same tough decisions without the option of "laying off" on a second choice. And it would give every player and equal chance going into the tournament no matter the size of their bankroll. Wealthier players still have the option of entering numerically more contests than those of more modest means. Plus it would add a greater diversity and number of players to the tournament pools - always a positive development in an expanding sector.

Looks like the ship has already sailed at the NHC. So let's make the call to Derby Wars and other contest sites like HorseTourneys and HorsePlayersQualify. Make your contests truly egalitarian and meritocratic by restricting contest entries to one per tournament and give everybody, wealthy or not, an equal chance of hitting the money. Surely that's the American way.

First rule of handicapping: believe in yourself

The easiest trap to fall into as a blogger is to fail to heed your own advice. Mea culpa on that one today.

In a post here a couple of days ago I warned handicappers to trust their own judgment and not be swayed by so-called experts. Yet in the opening race at Aqueduct Friday I did exactly that and it cost me big-time - almost certainly a spot in a big Derby Wars tournament I was aiming at for Saturday. In a field of just seven horses in a 2-year-old fillies Maiden I landed on what I thought would be the longest-shot of two roughies, Golden Luck at about 15/1.

But at opening price of 10/1 he looked bad value against the other long-shot, Naturally Won, at 14/1. The Aqueduct between-race announcers agreed, pointing out that Golden Luck should have been a much longer price than Naturally Won. I panicked and, with five minutes to go and the odds still heavily in Naturally Won's favor, switched to it. Bad decision. Golden Luck blew out late in the market to 27/1 while naturally Won stuck at 14/1. Golden Luck duly won and put one smart tournament player (not me) into tomorrow's $20,000 tournament.

Note to self: lots of other people hear that between-race analysis, too, and the money tends to follow what they say. You've already handicapped the race and made your pick. Remember Norman Vincent Peale: Believe in Yourself.

Top 5 reasons people quit on (clean) horse racing

1. They over-estimate the meaning of losing
When life is seen as a football game, then losing appears unacceptable. But horse racing isn't like that. In wagering, good decisions are more important than good outcomes, winning happens over the long haul, and hitting winners that pay well is more important than just hitting winners. As Peter Fornatale, in his excellent book 'The Winning Contest Player', points out (p. 199): "In gambling, you can still hate losing, but you also must learn to live with it." Losing happens more often than winning in horse racing and successful wagerers adjust to its relative frequency.

2. They over-estimate the thrill of winning
Winning on the horses is as easily misconstrued as losing on them. You're not a handicapping genius because you hit a 150-1 daily double - maybe your system's just working. Winners at the track can get lost in the exhiliration of the moment and mistakenly believe they can back winners all day. Fornatale's book (p. 201) quotes well-known tournament player Brian Troop in warning bettors against this: "If you win a race and you get a good price, you should forget about it because there are more races to come." In other words, learn to hit the re-set button.

3. They under-estimate horses 
Research indicates that horses are not the simple-minded oat-bags we used to think. For example, we now know that they have powerful memories of significant events in their lives - often dating back years. Positive recollections no doubt have as great an impact on horses as on humans and with similar results: if a horse has done well somewhere and been rewarded, it remembers that event vividly and will try to repeat it. Horse-players often mistakenly think horses are only as good as their last few races, whereas value often lies eight races down or more. Form guides that go back that far cost extra but are worth it.

4. They over-estimate others' opinions
Most racing programs have a morning line - the odds of the horse - printed under the horse's number. Many race-goers think that this figure represents the actual odds (or chance) of the horse winning that race. Not so. The morning line represents what somebody thinks the final odds of the horse will be at post time. In other words, it's one person's prediction of what the combined total of a whole lot of other people's predictions will finish up at. Confused? They might be, too. Same goes for all those other "handicapping experts" on TV and in print - it's all just individual opinions. Like yours.

5. They under-estimate their own abilities
Following on from that, there's a reason Norman Vincent Peale's book 'The Power of Positive Thinking', first published in 1952, is still being reviewed on Amazon to this day. Distilled to its essence, Peale's message in the book is for horse-players (and everybody else, of course) to "believe in yourself." Remember the old horse-track saying: "If you want to know who the competition is, look around". As tough as it sounds, you have to ask yourself, in times of self doubt, whether you're really as incompetent at this as that knucklehead over there. Peale was right - believe.

Vic. Derby Day could fatten Breeders Cup Bankrolls

We realize that U.S. racing fans' attention may be a little diverted from the Australian racing scene right now. But Derby Day in Melbourne is huge, the timing is perfect (Friday night) and RePete has found lots of great value plays to help fatten those Breeders' Cup betting bankrolls. So here we go.



The track: Flemington racecourse is so big it runs no-turn six-furlong (1200 meter) races (the Straight Six) and the home stretch is almost three furlongs long, so closers are probably more strongly favored there than at any track in Australia. And with track conditions expected to be no worse than dead, track bias should be minimal, allowing form to play out.

Race 1: The track should suit lightly-raced Sydney shipper No. 7 Kermadec (7/1 ML), who finished fast for 2nd at Randwick (Sydney's largest track) last start over this distance two weeks ago and has a first-start maiden victory over Careless (No. 4) to her credit. Stratum Star (No. 2) is another big finisher making her mile debut - she's a last-start winner at this level. Wandjina (No. 3) is taking a big class drop here. Pick: 7-2x4x3.

 
Race 2: Fontein Ruby (No. 1) just keeps getting better and she looks too good for these despite her short even-money ML. At that price, try standing her out over 15/1 ML shot Yesterjoy (No. 10), which didn't appear suited by the tight Geelong circuit last start; add Sydney shipper No. 5 Muscovado (7/1) - a last-start Randwick winner - and No. 7 Lady Macan (10/1) to the exotics boxes. Pick: 1-10x5x7.


 
Race 3: At 20/1 overnight, No. 12 Spy Decoder from the powerful Cummings stable is one of the value plays of the day. He atoned for his poor effort at Grade One level two runs ago with a good win in Sydney last start and today's seven furlongs (1400 meters) favors him. Expect No. 1 Smokin' Joey (12/1) to be finishing hard and add No. 3 Generalife (5/1), No. 2 Alma's Fury (15/1) and No. 5 Limes (15/1) to what could be a big exotics play. Pick: 12-1x3x2x5.

Race 4: Very tough to call this one so we'll lean towards on-the-pace runners. Scissor Kick (No. 3) at 10/1 ML is in very good Sydney form with a recent 2nd-placing at Group One level and should appreciate the cutback from 7 furlongs to six here. But include No. 1 Rich Enuff (9/2), which is ultra-consistent at this level, has a 2-for-2 strike rate at the distance and is the likely pace-setter. Play the best price but box the exacta. Pick: 1x3


 
Race 5: Back to the closers here with No. 13 More Than Sacred, a price shot at 12/1 which came from well back on the turn in the Grade 3 Geelong Cup last start and before that was a fast-finishing 2nd at Cranbourne. Flemington's long stretch should suit her. For exotics add No. 1 Big Memory (9/2) taking a big class drop and No. 5 Let's Make Adeal (7/1) off a strong finish last start. We'll add No. 9 Signoff (9/2) No. 10 Marksmanship to juice the exotics. Pick: 13-1x5x9x10

Race 6: This year Australia's second-biggest weight-for-age race is a wagerer's dream at 5/1 the field. Lets take advantage by playing two on top at around 7/1 ML: No. 2 Happy Trails and No. 15 Rising Romance. The former was a fast-finishing sixth over the unsuitable Moonee Valley circuit last start and has been primed for this race. The latter ran a game second last start in the Caulfield Cup and looks to be still improving, though she's not well in at the weights. Play them over ML favorite No. 13 Criterion (5/1) and the 15/1 shot Spillway (No. 11), both of which will be suited by the track. Pick: 2x15-13x11.


Race 7: Today's best best is in the feature race - the Victoria Derby - but isn't much value at 9/5. Nonetheless No. 1 Hampton Court, from the powerful Gai Waterhouse stable, is in outstanding form in Sydney and strongly impressed with a very easy last-start win at Grade 1 level. He looks to be getting better with each start. Let's stand him out over a couple of price shots in No. 7 Nozomi, from the strong Freedman stable, and Sydney shipper no. 12 Gouldian, both at 20/1 ML. Add ML favorite (3/1) No. 13 Preferment and No. 11 Atmosphere at about 7/1 to the exotic plays. Pick: 1*-7x11x12x13.

 
Race 8: Perhaps the value play of the day lands in this race in No. 3 Diamond Drille at 20/1 ML. This classy mare was blocked for a run last start when 7th to today's ML favorite and Waterhouse stablemate No. 1 Sweet Idea (9/2), who is the second choice. Diamond Drille has a great mile record (2-for-2) and the stable is known for fielding strong second-stringers in big races. Add No. 2 Catkins (7/1), No. 4 May's Dream (5/1) and No. 14 Politeness (12/1) for the minor placings. Pick: 3-1x2x4x14.


Race 9: Legendary NSW bush jockey Robert Thompson makes a rare Melbourne appearance today to ride No. 5 Big Money (6/1) and we'll take that cue. This horse was a strong-finishing fourth two weeks ago at Caulfield, his first time out of the money, and he has a 3:2-1 record at the today's 6 furlongs. Box him in your exacta with the unbeaten 6/5 ML favorite Deep Field (No. 6), who has looked impressive but faces his toughest test to date. Take both in the trifecta over 30/1 shot No. 9 That's A Good Idea and No. 1 Bel Sprinter (5/1). Pick: 5x6-1x9

St Louis track looks doomed by economics, politics

Is St. Louis about to become the third major U.S. metropolitan area to lose its only live horse-racing venue?

Fairmount Park, one of the country's smallest pari-mutuel wagering tracks, might not re-open for the spring meet in 2015. Declining handle, competition from nearby casinos and the tangled undergrowth of Illinois politics may have doomed the little track that barely could. Not to mention the track ownership's apparent inability to market Fairmount Park as a viable racing venue.

The track has struggled for years to stay alive as new gambling venues like the Casino Queen, about five miles away in East St. Louis, have sucked away local gambling dollars. The track has fought back by applying for a casino license, but Illinois politics and poor marketing have combined to so far thwart the track's attempts to compete.

Boston-area's Suffolk Downs recently closed because it lost a battle with the Wynn casino group for a lucrative gaming license. Colonial Downs, in Richmond, VA, lost out to competition from the five major casinos of nearby Maryland according to a local report. Fairmount Park's nearest gambling competition is the Casino Queen in East St. Louis, where revenue has fallen by 13% over the past year. Fairmount's application for a slot-machine licence would no doubt do further harm to the impoverished community, which draws 40% of its tax revenue from the casino.

Apparently in reaction to the Casino Queen's woes, a Chicago politician recently removed the Fairmount Park racetrack from a list of venues recommended to receive slot-machine licenses from the State of Illinois next year. One local report implied that the motivation for this was a combination of racial politics (East St. Louis is 95% African-American, as is the politician, Robert Rita) and a desire by Rita to win a casino license for his own constituency.

But if Fairmount Park closes it will surely be a matter of economics. The track is ranked number 53 out of the country's 69 pari-mutuels wagering tracks for horse-player value, according to  a recent report by the Horseplayers Association of North America. The track also has a well-deserved reputation for dodgy riding tactics. 

There are quite simply too many small, substandard racetracks in the U.S. like Fairmount Park chasing too few gambling dollars in mid-western cities like St. Louis. More of them will need to close in future if the sport is to recover. Let's get it over with.

Value plays abound on tough Cox plate undercard

Race 2: Miss Steele (No. 10) was unlucky in the stretch last week in listed company at Caulfield and faces weaker today at a healthy 8/1 morning line. Rocky King (No. 1) has won two in a row at 6/1 while Straight Gold (No. 5) or Let"s Rock'n'roll (No. 7) should take the minor placing.
Suggested play: Win: 10; Stand-out exacta and trifecta: 10 over 1x5x7 boxed

Race 3: There's an over-played odds-on favorite here in No. 1 Lumosty, who drops in class but was still disappointing at Grade 1 level last start. Instead take no. 4 Tender off a 10/1 morning line - she closed well last start and the extra furlong should suit. Add No. 8 Kansas Sunflower at 20/1, who ran a good fourth last week, and put the favorite into boxed exotics.
Suggested play: Win: 4, 8. Boxed exacta: 4x8x1, Boxed trifecta 4x8x1


Race 5: Bomb-dropper alert here with Anudjawan (No. 8) at about 30/1 overnight. This horse ran third to the outstanding Who Shot Thebarman over this distance last start and looks ready here at a big price. The exacta play looks like 3/1 overnight favorite Opinion (No. 7) off an excellent Grade One effort last start.
Suggested play: Win, place and show: 8; Box exacta: 8x7; Box trifecta: 8x7 boxed over 4x5x9 boxed

Race 9: Another price shot in Precious Gem (No. 10) looks strong at a 10/1 morning line coming off a fast-finishing 6th at Grade 3 level last start at Caulfield, its first from a let-up. For the exotics, let's add long-shot Refer (No. 12) at 15/1 and Tango's Daughter (No. 2) at 7/2 with favorite Suavito (No. 4) at 2/1.
Suggested play: 10 win, place and show. Stand-out exacta and trifecta: 10 over 12x2x4 boxed.

Remember: Our handicapper RePete suggests that if you have the bankroll for it, box all of his picks in the exotics in each race tonight. At these prices, he notes, it could well be worth the extra outlay

Trust in a Gust a lock to key 5-for-5 show plays

We've already discussed the need for a little help in the Twinspires Australian 5-for-5 contests on Friday nights. Look to oustanding Melbourne prospect Trust in a Gust (No. 5) in Race 6, the Group 2 Schweppes Crystal Mile, to lock the play.

There's no value in 6-5 morning line about this horse but he is almost certain to hit the board after convincing wins at higher Grade in his last two starts. Plus he loves this track (3:2-1) and has an oustanding strike rate (17:10-4-1) so forget the tiny show payout and make him your lock 5-for-5 lock.

As well as Fawkner (No. 2) in the Cox Plate (R8), and Go Indy Go (no. 13) in the Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase (R7) to make it three, let's try to separate from the pack with a few price shots to make the five early on. In Race 2, No. 10 Miss Steele (8/1) should at least hit the board off an unlucky 8th place at Caulfield last week. Follow with another 8/1 pop in race 4, Greco (no. 6), who broke his maiden in Sydney stylishly and hails from an astute shipping stable. If you still need a fifth to wrap things up, try 10/1 shot No. 10 Precious Gem in race 9 off a fast-finishing fourth at Caulfield last week. Your 5-for-5 is set - good luck winning the $1,000.

Suggested 5-for-5 show play: R2 No.10 - R4 No.6 - R6 No.5 - R8 No.2 - R9 No.10