Essential handicapping tools: 2) The heavy-duty stapler

We old-school paper-and-pen handicappers have an attachment to the physical tools of our trade similar to the way later-comers love their laptops. We have our favorites and we never stop pimping them.

Such is the way with the heavy duty stapler that you see in the picture. What so great about these things, you ask? You'll know if you've ever tried stapling a 70-page form guide together with the dinky little one that sits on your desk That's right, 70 pages. We're talking about Brisnet Ultimate PPs With Comments here, and they can run at least that over a 10-race card or - more likely - a 12-race contest. Now that's a stack of paper and needs a serious piece of hardware to handle it.

We'll get to the Brisnet Ultimates over the next few posts. But before that you'd better get yourself a heavy-duty stapler - we recommend the Bostitch Model PHD-60 that takes Stanley Bostitch SB35PHD staples. Those babies will penetrate the thickest stack of PPs you can download without burning your printer out - and yes, more in later posts on printing tips. Attaching more than 50 pages takes a little muscle, but just put it on the floor and push hard. This thing can take a lot of punishment.

Of course, you could just download the PPs onto your laptop and scroll down through the pages without touching a sheet of paper and therefore never needing to shell out $20 for one of these things. But that would miss the visceral thrill of the form guide, and for old-school types that's a part of the overall fun. Small price to pay.

Essential handicapping tools: 1) The King Size Sharpie

Here's a question about horse racing that many newcomers - and even some veterans - rarely ask themselves.

Where does the morning line come from?

In days gone by, a handicapper was employed by every racetrack in the United States to set the morning line (ML) odds for each horse in each race. Bear in mind that this person's decisions weren't meant to reflect what chance s/he thought each horse had in each race. Rather, they reflected what that person thought the betting market would look like when the horses jumped - a prediction of what price the betting public would make each horse on the pari-mutuel totalizator (tote).

You would expect this process to have been pretty well computerized by now, and apparently that's the direction harness racing is moving in with the Trackmaster program. But as far as we can tell, thoroughbred racing still hangs in there with the single employed line-setter. Even in wagering-friendly countries like the U.K. and Australia, the only market available to punters there trying to bet into American races is the American morning line.

Having the morning line set by a single individual who is not a professional bookmaker creates wagering opportunities. As David Hill points out in this excellent blog post, even though the morning line setter gets the post-time favorite right about 70% of the time, the differences between prediction and actual starting prices (SPs) at either end of the scale can vary widely. The morning line plays to human psychology in causing us to doubt our own abilities and trust more in the word of others when making decisions, Hill points out. The result is over-bet short-priced favorites and under-bet long-shots. And therein lie opportunities.

We will discuss in further blog posts how to use this knowledge to help us handicap long-shots better. But for the moment, lets take Hill's advice and get rid of the morning line. We don't need one person's opinion on a the relative merits of each horse in a race before we even get down to business. We don't even know, most of the time, who this person is what sort of record they have at getting the SPs right.

It's our handicapping job to form our own opinions, at least first. The morning line usually winds up being a major distraction because it makes us second-guess our handicapping decisions. So fire the line setter and do it yourself.

Step One is written for pen-and-paper 'cappers like myself but I'm sure the smartphone users can find an app somewhere that will help. Once you have your PPs stapled together with your heavy-duty stapler (see future posts), take a King Size Sharpie like the one at the top of this post.

Shut off your short-term memory (if you still have one) and begin the job of blacking out every morning line under every horse, and anywhere else you see the ML, like the list at the back of the Brisnet Ultimate PPs (also the subject of a future post). You'll find that the chiseled nib of the King Size Sharpie is exactly the right thickness for this task. Then you're ready to get down to the serious business of handicapping the race yourself without the morning line peeking over your shoulder.

Step Two is to formulate your own ML. We'll deal with that in an upcoming post.

Official tipping results for Caulfield Cup day, October 19

RePete's picks on the ten-race Caulfield Cup card turned out well although a few close finishes - especially Miracles of Life's dead-heat in the Caulfield Sprint at 6/1- hurt a little. He hit two winners amongst his minor-place-getters at double-figure odds, landed the (local) Pick-3 on races 6, 7 and 8, picked two keyed exacta (winning pick over a minor pick) and five boxed exactas (winner and second-placegetter picked in any order). He aims to improve on this by landing at least one box trifecta next week.

Here are his consolidated results for the 10-race Caulfield Cup day card:

Winning picks made: 10; finished first: 3*; ratio: 30%; average SP: 6-1*
Non-winning picks made: 23; finished first: 4; ratio: 17.4%; average SP: 9.2-1
Total picks made: 33; finished on board: 15; ratio: 45%; average SP: 6.2-1
(*includes dead-heat)

Below is the table of results for his individual picks followed by their number, finishing position and official starting price

1  Tender         9     X      $21
    Sea Spray    4    1st     $4.25
    Bella Capri   5    X       $11

2   Careless         6    3rd     $6
     Liberation     10    X      $9
     Petrology       7     X      $12

3   Lady Macan    4    X       $8.50
     Tears of Joy   11    X       $26
     Set Square      8   1st       $7.50
     Maastricht       3   2nd     $1.90

4   Kumaon           1    X        $3.75
     Fontein Ruby  12   1st       $13
     Bachman          3    X        $8

5    Manawanui   3    X        $8
      River Lad     1    X        $13
      Leebaz         6    X        $5.50

6    Sweet Idea        3    1st        $3.50
      Catkins             4    3rd        $4
      Diamond Drille  1      X        $26

7    Contributer  2    1st       $7.50
      Kingdoms    5    X        $10
      Signoff         9    3rd      $5

8   Miracles of Life    4*    1stDH  $7
     Pago Rock           6       X        $31
     Shamal Wind        7     3rd       $6

9  Rising Romance        16    2nd     $12
    Lucia Valentina          15    3rd     $4
    Who Shot TheBarm. 11     X       $11
    Lidari                        14    X       $8.50

10  Cradle Me            4    2nd      $6
      Anatina                 3     X        $2.10
      Lonhruge             10    X        $100
      Messina Nymph   11   1st       $5.50

Up next Friday night (U.S. time) is the Cox Plate - the world's richest weight-for-age race. We're at Moonee Valley for that one - probably the most challenging track in Australia for picking winners. All the best!

Why do handicappers read other people's tipsheets anyway?

Our relative success with RePete's selections for Caulfield (Australia) last Friday night - see the previous two posts - got us thinking. Are we really adding any value by tipping other players who probably have their own methods and opinions? And if we are, how will we know? For that matter, how will they?

Let's take the example whether someone like RePete (in Sydney) adds value to U.S.-based wagerers on Australian racing. On its face, there should be no question - his local knowledge is almost certainly better than ours because: a) he lives there; b) he handicaps races from every state in Australia every week; and c) he has a remarkable racehorse memory. But there's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip, as they say. Just because he knows his stuff doesn't necessarily mean we can profit by it. From our experience, the opposite is often true - readers end up more confused at the end of a tipsheet than at the beginning.

How to avoid this? Timeliness is one solution. We've all had the experience of reading a tipsheet the night before pointing out a hot 15/1 shot only to see it open at 5/2 the next day. By contrast, holding tips back until a few hours before post lets the tipster include significant market movements. This is especially so in countries in like Australia and the U.K., where fixed-odds betting is legal. Remember: Money talks, bullshit walks.

Openness is another. Twitter users are very familiar with the amateur tipster who shouts loud when he scores big but keeps strangely quiet the rest of the time. Even some of the better professional handicappers in horse racing don't publish open records of the results of all their tips. But if you go public with your tips then we think you are obligated to report openly too, in a way that makes it clear how much or how little value you added to your readers - not just brag about your big scores.

So let's turn this into an action plan. When we post tips we pledge to do it at a time that will optimize wagering, or have a good reason why not. When we post, we'll make it clear which is the winning pick and which are for the minor money and we'll try to limit the picks in each race to three unless there appears to be a superfecta in play.

Once we post, we have a duty to follow and report. We'll post our results as soon as possible after the card is over - both for individual picks and for overall results. That said, we don't want to make the common mistake in handicapping of letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. So although the primary result we'll report will be how many winning picks actually won and at what starting price (SP), we will also include a category for the ratio of place picks that also won and their SPs.

But we will drill down further than that. Hitting minor place-getters as well as winners is essential to players of the vertical exotics (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, etc.) and to most contest players, which pay second place. So we will also note how often the tipped horses actually hit the board and at what average price. We'll note if we hit a big play but will avoid howling at the moon (too much) if we land, say, a big trifecta. Long-term value is what we're trying to add here.

Let us know if you think there's something important we're forgetting. We will post RePete's complete results for Caulfield Cup Day following this. Good luck at the Cox Plate this Friday.

Caulfield Cup aftermath - RePete keeps repeating

It was a solid day at Caulfield yesterday for our analyst RePete. With his top picks he hit the board in 6 out of ten races including the last 5 races in a row - which would have taken top prize in the Twinspires 5-for-5 competition - with 3 winners. He also picked up some nice results on his second picks (2 winners, 2 minor placings), 3rd picks (1 winner, 2 minor placings) and his three fourth picks (1 win, 1 minor placing) to help out exotics players. Below shows the table of results for his picks yesterday followed by their number, finishing position and official starting price.


1  Tender         9     X      $21
    Sea Spray    4    1st     $4.25
    Bella Capri   5    X       $11

2   Careless         6    3rd     $6
     Liberation     10    X      $9
     Petrology       7     X      $12

3   Lady Macan    4    X       $8.50
     Tears of Joy   11    X       $26
     Set Square      8   1st       $7.50
     Maastricht       3   2nd     $1.90

4   Kumaon           1    X        $3.75
     Fontein Ruby  12   1st       $13
     Bachman          3    X        $8

5    Manawanui   3    X        $8
      River Lad     1    X        $13
      Leebaz         6    X        $5.50

6    Sweet Idea        3    1st        $3.50
      Catkins             4    3rd        $4
      Diamond Drille  1      X        $26

7    Contributer  2    1st       $7.50
      Kingdoms    5    X        $10
      Signoff         9    3rd      $5

8   Miracles of Life    4*    1stDH  $7
     Pago Rock           6       X        $31
     Shamal Wind        7     3rd       $6

9  Rising Romance        16    2nd     $12
    Lucia Valentina          15    3rd     $4
    Who Shot TheBarm. 11     X       $11
    Lidari                        14    X       $8.50

10  Cradle Me            4    2nd      $6
      Anatina                 3     X        $2.10
      Lonhruge             10    X        $100
      Messina Nymph   11   1st       $5.50

Convergence is the key to handicapping tonight's tough Caulfield Cup card

It can be difficult enough for the American player taking on a competitive card of Australian racing on just any regular wagering day. But the Caulfield Cup, Australia's second biggest race by prizemoney and one of the world's premier mile-and-a-half turf events, and its competitive undercard this Saturday (Friday night U.S. time) offers its own unique set of wagering challenges.

Luckily, this blog's Australian-based form analyst (let's call him RePete, because he tends to do that) has decades of experience handicapping just about every track in Australia and even beyond. He's been steadily tracking the progress over the past few seasons of every horse that matters on Caulfield's card today and not much has evaded his vigilance. Let's hand it over to him.


The track
Caulfield is generally known as a track that favors pace-pressers and stalkers because of its tight turns and short final stretch - 2 furlongs.  The general rule is a horse needs to be in the first four around the turn to have a reasonable chance of winning. However, there are some exceptions to this rule, as we will see. Sometimes the track has a daily bias but this depends on how far out the rail is set - the further out, the less bias. Track bias doesn't usually change from race to race. Racing begins at 9:50 p.m. Eastern Time.

Race 1
The David Hayes-trained TENDER (No. 9) is a nice play at a decent price ($11 overnight) in the opener, the 7-furlong Yellowglen Plate for 3-year-old fillies. Hayes brought her in from Adelaide with a good two-year-old record in better company than this back in the (Australian) autumn and the stable are very strong shippers. Add in SEA SPRAY (No. 4) and BELLA CAPRI (No. 5) - both promising fillies at around $8-9. Pick: 9-4-5

Race 2
Sydney import CARELESS (No. 6) is a lightly-raced maiden trained by the Godolphin Stable's in-house trainer, John O'Shea, and arrives for the listed Crown Lager Stakes for 3-year-old colts off two solid on-pace efforts in Sydney. He's good value at $7 overnight and the stable knows when to bring them to Melbourne. Behind that it's very open - maybe add LIBERATION (No. 12) at around $10 and PETROLOGY (No. 7) at $15 overnight to juice exotics. Pick: 6-10-7

Race 3
The first leg of the Pick-3 is the listed Ethereal Stakes over 1.25 miles for 3-year-old fillies and Sydney shipper LADY MACAN (No. 4) looks good at the $8-9 mark. She ran a strong fourth last start against the colts at Randwick (Sydney) to Hampton Court, who has held his form well, and Lady Macan returns to her own sex today. Longshot TEARS OF JOY (No. 11) should be suited by the extra two furlongs here and could hit the board at 30/1. Add SET SQUARE (No. 8) at 10/1 and the overbet favorite MAASTRICHT (No. 3) to exotics. Pick: 4-11-8-3

Race 4
If Maastricht does well in the previous race, watch the market on FONTEIN RUBY (NO. 12) in the G3 1.25-mile Caulfield Classsic from $12 overnight price. She narrowly beat that colt at G2 level last start at Flemington (Melbourne) and drops in grade today. That said, the $4 favorite KUMAON (No. 1) - whose fast-closing effort last week at G1 level was a great trial for today's race - is the one to beat here. Add BACHMAN (No. 3), another Sydney shipper from the astute stable of Gerald Ryan, a former Melbourne jockey, to your exotics. Pick: 1-12-3

Race 5
Yet another Sydney shipper looks good in the 7-furlong Moonga Stakes. MANAWANUI (No. 3) took significant money overnight into about $6 for several reasons - he has a great strike rate (7 from 19), is proven at the class and loves this distance. Add Queensland shipper RIVER LAD (No. 1) at around $8  - his second-up 4th to the outstanding Chautauqua was a strong pointer to this race and he won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane over the winter. The favorite LEEBAZ (no. 6) is first up from a five-month spell so watch the money there. Pick: 3-1-6.

Race 6
Tough to call the G2 Tristarc Stakes for mares between Gai Waterhouse-trained SWEET IDEA (No. 3) and CATKINS (No. 4), both around $3.50, but leaning to the former. She is coming off an excellent fourth to Trust in a Gust last start at Caulfield and has speed to burn. The latter is an ultra-consistent mare who has hit the board 20 out of 25 lifetime starts - a great play for 5-for-5 show backers. Add the other Waterhouse-trained DIAMOND DRILLE (No. 1) at a juicy $17 overnight - she won a G1 stakes last autumn and the stable is known for picking up big races with second-stringers. Pick: 3-4-1

Race 7
The ultra-consistent CONTRIBUTER (No. 2) at about $5 looks the one to beat in the G3 David Jones Cup over 1.25 miles. Having his first start in Australia and first overall since June but his first-up record in England was four starts for three wins and he's very well-bred, by High Chaparral. Key him over Brisbane invader KINGDOMS (No. 5) at around $9 overnight - he came to Sydney for a strong-finishing fourth at G1 level last start. The drop-back from 1.5 to 1.25 miles today should suit favored SIGNOFF (No. 9) at around $5. Pick: 2-5-9

Race 8
Our best bet of the day is in the G2 5.5-furlong Caulfield Sprint: Adelaide speedster MIRACLES OF LIFE (No. 4). This outstanding 4-year-old mare is returning to the scene of her greatest triumph as a 2-year-old in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield and has taken significant overnight money from $12 into around $8. She is coming off a strong autumn campaign in Adelaide and I expect her to lead all the way today and run them off their legs. Key her over PAGO ROCKS (No. 6) which could bob up at around 15/1 and don't leave the favorite SHAMAL WIND (No. 7) out of exotics. Pick: 4*-6x7

Race 9
The G1 Caulfield Cup (2400 meters/1.5 miles), worth $3 million, is one of the world's great mile-and-a-half races and a true staying test now that that the European invaders have started setting the pace. Punters this year favor another mare to win the Cup in the shape of LUCIA VALENTINA (No. 15). Her form is excellent but she's too short at 5/2. I prefer the other lightweight mare RISING ROMANCE (No. 16) - she had a G1 victory over Lucia Valentina in the AJC (Sydney) Oaks over this distance in April and is currently at a juicy $17. We'll add Sydney-sider WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (No. 11) at around $20 and LIDARI (No. 14), yet another lightweight chance at around $10 for the exotics. Pick: 16-15-11-14

Race 10
Looking for something to beat the 8/5 favorite ANATINA (No. 3) in the last race, the 5.5-furlong listed Alinghi Stakes for fillies and mares, I've landed on another Sydney invader. CRADLE ME (No. 4) is a very consistent mare coming off a 3-month lay-off but has excellent first-up form and has hit the board in fully half of her 30 starts so looks a good play in the 5-for-5. She's about $5.50 overnight. Let's drop a real bomb for the minor money with 60/1 pop LONHRUGE (No. 10), an inconsistent galloper who has shown ability in the past and is still fresh. If that's too rich for you, try adding the well-traveled MESSINA NYMPH (No. 11) at around the $7 quote. Pick: 4-3-10-11.

Good luck and see you next week for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley.

Horrific falls a risk of horse racing: Lest we forget the Caulfield Cup, 1885

For those of us who follow horse racing in the U.S. and Australia, it's been a tough week with three promising young jockeys killed in race falls - two in Australia and one in the U.S. Debate has begun in both countries over whether training tactics or jockey riding strategies are placing jockeys' lives at risk.But we need to recall some of the pragmatics of the sport we love

Those of us with long memories remember a time when horrific jockey injuries and deaths were almost considered par for the course in a sport with millions of dollars worth of private and public money on the line. And we recall a time when young jockeys entering the sport were thought of as akin to young men joining the military. They received room, board and an opportunity to learn a trade from the masters with the possibility of a very comfortable living and a satisfying retirement. In return they were going to be asked, every so often, to put their lives on the line.

Every time the jockey dons his or her silks, picks up his whip and heads for the mounting yard they bring to mind a soldier donning his uniform, strapping on his gun and falling in. Sure, it will probably be the same old, same old. Obey the orders do what you're told, follow the rules, everything will be fine. But maybe not. For Juan Saez, Caitlyn Forrest and Carly-Mae Pye this week, it wasn't. And three young lives were lost.

But this week is an aberration. We have had long periods of no jockey fatalities despite the huge number of horse races run each day around the world, and we will have more. And its easy to fall into the trap of thinking that it's never been this bad.

I recently discovered an account of one of the most horrific racetrack accidents in all of Australian horse racing that occurred 129 years ago to this race day, in front of the packed grandstand of the Caulfield raceourse in the Caulfield Cup of 1885. Here's the link to a report from the day of the fall in the now-defunct Melbourne Argus.

An excerpt:

"M'Grade, who had been on Tom Brown, looked very ghastly. His nose was broken in, one arm hung   loosely and what with dust and blood and his white face, those around thought that he also had been killed outright. M'Grath, the rider of Prince Imperial, was also senseless, having received a blow on the head   when his horse rolled over. The tiny rider Tuomey was stretched alongside his dead  horse, Uarah, who had been instantly killed, and at first it seemed that both horse and jockey were in the same condition. Com- miseration for the tiny boy lying on one end of the stretcher was greater on account of his small size. Wyman, the rider of Sardius, was one of the first down, and as a dozen  horses seemed to roll right on top of him his escape from instant death was a miracle. He, too, was picked up unconscious, suffering from   concussion of the brain."

Today is Caulfield Cup Day, 2014. Let's give thanks to how much safer the sport has become. Lest we forget.